Wednesday, November 30, 2011
CNBC Portfolio Challenge Bonus Bucks Answers for Thursday, December 1
ANSWER: First Solar
2. Gibson Guitar factories in Tennessee were raided last week by federal officials trying to enforce
ANSWER: Logging rules
3. Border guards, teachers and nurses among other state workers walked out on Wednesday in protest against the government's austerity measures. It was Britain's first mass strike in how many years?
Answer: more than 30 years
What is the “most shorted” stock in the S&P 500 stock index, according to figures compiled this week by CNBC.com?
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What is the “most shorted” stock in the S&P 500 stock index, according to figures compiled this week by CNBC.com?
ANSWER: First Solar
CNBC Bonus Bucks Answers
HollyFrontier (HFC) 2011 Review
Consolidated historical figures are not yet available; however, earnings per share are expected to grow from $5.50 this year to $5.75 in 2012 while the dividend per share should increase from $.33 to $.38. Return on equity in 2011 will be roughly 60%. HFC should benefit from:
The Mother of all QE's
This will buy time for the EU to work out its fiscal profligacy/solvency problem. To be clear, it won't solve it. However, this action will (1) take a near term euro collapse off the table, (2) allow investors to re-focus attention on the US economy, (3) make our bet in gold all the more solid.
Morning Journal Don't forget, the US has a sovereign debt problem
Tiffany’s reported its latest quarterly earnings per share of $.70 versus expectations of $.60. However, it gave down beat guidance for next year.
Economics
This Week’s Data
The International Council of Shopping Centers reported weekly sales of major retailers up 1.7% versus the prior week and up 4.0% versus the comparable period last year; Redbook Research reported month to date retail chain store sales up 5.4% on a year over year basis.
@AllAmerInvest Stocks UP Size Thank You China, Obama, the Cure, Bonus Bucks Answers , More
8 15 AM
Looks very good right now. Thank you China.
China steps on the economic accelerator
China is cutting the amount of money banks need to hold in reserve, freeing those funds to stimulate their economy.
The People's Bank of China said Wednesday it will lower its reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions by half a percentage point. It was the first such cut in the ratio since 2008, and a change in course after the ratio was raised five times this year.
The Morning Call This is no bazooka
Technical
Yesterday, the indices (DJIA 11555, S&P 1195) were quiet for a change, leaving them well within their intermediate term trading ranges (10725-12929, 1101-1372).
I have noted several times that, Monday’s bounce aside, there looks to be no support between current price levels and the lower boundaries of the Averages intermediate term trading ranges. In addition, the S&P 50 day moving average is now around 1200 (and declining) and that will act as resistance. Given those two factors, the indices look technically weak.
Tuesday, November 29, 2011
CNBC Portfolio Challenge Bonus Bucks Answers for Wednesday, November 30
ANSWER: None
2. UK mortgage approvals rose more than expected in October although the overall picture for lending remained depressed. Mortgage approvals in October were:
ANSWER: the highest since Dec 2009
3. Since September, how many billion dollars worth of Hong Kong listings have been shelved because of volatile markets, according to the story Hong Kong IPO Rush Is a Sign of Bearishness: Strategist
Answer: more than $ 4 billion
How many United States cities are included in CNBC.com’s The World’s Best Places to Live 2011?
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How many United States cities are included in CNBC.com’s The World’s Best Places to Live 2011?
ANSWER: None
CNBC Bonus Bucks Answers
Suncor (SU) 2011 Review
Suncor Energy (SU) explores, acquires, develops, produces and markets crude oil and natural gas from (Canadian) oil sands, refines crude oil and markets petroleum and petroleum products.
SU has grown profits at a 19%+ rate over the past ten years, while raising its dividend at a 14% rate. The company’s varied dramatically ranging from 4% to 24%. SU experienced a fall off in profits during the recent economic down turn but should see future growth as a result of :
(1) the benefits from its merger with Petro-Canada. The combined entity will possess the largest oil sands resource, the strongest downstream asset base, the most solid exploration and production in Canada plus improved organizational skills and a superior balance between up stream and down stream operations,
@AllAmerInvest Bankruptcy, Crushing Economic Outlook, Bonus Bucks, Goldman Answers, Italy Pays, MF Global Money Found
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@AllAmerInvest Bankruptcy, Crushing Economic Outlook, Bonus Bucks, Goldman Answers, Italy Pays, MF Global Money Found
American Airlines' parent company is seeking Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection as it seeks to unload massive debt built up by years of accelerating jet fuel prices and labor struggles.
Read More
All American Investor
States Face Crushing Economic Outlook
Things have improved since the worst of the recession, but states still face a dire fiscal situation, according to a report to be released Tuesday by the National Governors Association (NGA) and the National Association of State Budget Officers (NASBO).
Goldman Answers Two Big Questions On The Payroll Tax Cut Extension
One of the biggest questions facing the economy in 2012 is the fate of the payroll tax cut and whether it will be extended into next year.
CNBC Portfolio Challenge Bonus Bucks Answers for Tuesday, November 29
Morning Journal-the Economy looks good, the politicians corrupt and Iran takes in the snoot
This Week’s Data
October new home sales rose 1.7% but only after the prior two months were revised downward.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/11/new-home-sales-in-october-307000-saar.html
Other
Household debt continues to decline:
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/11/ny-fed-q3-report-on-household-debt-and.html
As has the credit card delinquency rate:
http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2011/11/credit-card-deliqnuency-rate-falls-to.html
The NY Fed explains its lousy forecasts (medium):
http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/forecast-error-unexpected-events-Wall-Street/11/28/2011/id/38088
The Morning Call Anschluss or economic collapse?
Technical
The indices (DJIA 11523, S&P 1192) rallied big yesterday, but remain well within their intermediate term trading ranges (10725-12919, 1101-1372). In my opinion, they both are technically vulnerable to a further decline to the lower boundaries of their respective trading ranges. One interesting thing to note is that with yesterday’s bounce, a potential inverse head and shoulders formation could be developing in about 10-15% of the stocks in our Universe.
Volume rose substantially versus what we saw last week and breadth improved dramatically. The VIX plunged intraday to the lower boundary of the upper zone of its current trading range and then rebounded smartly. This action suggests further downside.
GLD bounced again right off the lower boundary of its intermediate term up trend.
SocGen on gold (medium):
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/socgen-sees-600-billion-qe3-starting-march-2012-sending-gold-between-1900-and-8500oz
Monday, November 28, 2011
CNBC Portfolio Challenge Bonus Bucks Answers for Tuesday, November 29
ANSWER: £19,920
2. Morgan Stanley has cut global growth forecasts for 2012 once again, nearly three and a half months after cutting them in august. What is the firm's new forecast?
ANSWER: 3.5%
3. Which of the following is NOT one of three things to watch in Europe this week, according to PIMCO’s Mohamed El-Erian?
Answer: Stock market performances
Research conducted by financial services recruitment firm Astbury Marsden showed City workers were expecting what average bonus this year?
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Research conducted by financial services recruitment firm Astbury Marsden showed City workers were expecting what average bonus this year?
ANSWER: £19,920
Morning Journal the ECRI weekly leading index improves again
This Week’s Data
Other
The ECRI weekly leading index posts a less negative reading for the fourth week in a row:
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/ECRI-Weekly-Leading-Index.php
This is a long and pretty negative take on our economy. I am a bit more optimistic; but the author has the big points correct (in my opinion):
http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/consumer-credit-small-banks-loans-Price/11/25/2011/id/38069
Here is another bright and cheery summation of global debt crisis from John Mauldin (long):
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/11/changing-the-rules-in-the-middle-of-the-game/
@AllAmerInvest Avoidable Crisis, Euro Area Ending, Hot Gold, Bonus Bucks, Germany Plays Poker
The financial crisis in Europe, seemingly never-ending, has now entered a potentially disastrous phase.
With interest rates on Italian and Spanish debt soaring, France looking shaky, and even Germany having trouble in the debt market, there’s a real possibility that the euro zone might just break apart—with dire consequences not just for Europe but also for the rest of us. Yet what’s easy to miss, amid the market tremors and the political brinksmanship, is that this is that rarest of problems—one that you really can solve just by throwing money at it.
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Euro Area Is Coming to an End: Peter Boone and Simon Johnson
Since the global financial crisis of 2008, investors have focused on credit risk and rewarded Germany with low interest rates for its perceived frugality. But now markets will focus on currency risk. Inflation will accelerate and the euro may break up in a way that calls into question all euro-denominated obligations. This is the beginning of the end for the euro zone. Here's why.
Central Banks Ease Most Since 2009
All American Investor
CNBC Portfolio Challenge Bonus Bucks Answers for Monday
Sunday, November 27, 2011
CNBC Portfolio Challenge Bonus Bucks Answers for Monday
1. In the story "Investors Short HK Property Stocks On China Slowdown" analysts expect property prices in Hong Kong to fall by how much next year?
ANSWER: 10-15%
2. The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee member Ben Broadbent said there is a risk of recession in the UK in what period?
ANSWER: in the fourth quarter
3. According to the CEO of DBS Bank, Piyush Gupta, how large are the bank's savings deposits in Singapore dollar terms?
Answer: S$80 billion
Stocks Up Size on Sunday Night 11/27
All American Investor
10 PM
Stock Indexes Log Worst Thanksgiving Week Since 1932
All American Investor
Friday, November 25, 2011
CNBC Portfolio Challenge Bonus Bucks Answers for Friday, November 25, 2011
ANSWER: All Nine
2. According to CNBC’s "Best Books for the Holidays 2011," Walter Isaacson has put together the ultimate biography of what technology and design genius?
ANSWER: Steve Jobs
3. Which of the following is NOT included in CNBC.com’s “10 Holiday Shopping Apps That Will Save You Money?”
Answer: Shopper
Subscriber Alert More downside
11/25/11
Our Portfolios will continue to chip away at their technically broken stocks. AT the Market open this morning, the following sales will be made:
In the Dividend Growth Portfolio: the remainder of AVP, EPI and its holding of Canon (CAJ).
In the High Yield Portfolio: the remainder of its EPI.
In the Aggressive Growth Portfolio: the remainder of its AVP and EPI.
@AllAmerInvest Demolish profits, Ted Spread Surges, Italy Doink, Home Price Crash
In his latest FT column, Martin Wolf gets right to the heart of the matter, explaining why you can't simultaneously "cut deficits" and grow an economy at the same time when the private sector has too much debt.
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Treasurys May Feel the December Blues
The past two Decembers, Treasury bonds suffered brutal selloffs as investors showed an increased willingness to buy stocks and other riskier assets. In addition, many companies and municipal governments sold bonds to lock in funding before the turn of the year, competing with the Treasury auctions for cash. The 10-year yield soared 0.50 percentage point in December 2010 and 0.64 percentage point...
Thursday, November 24, 2011
@AllAmerInvest Shaky World Edition
Here are a couple of eyecatching graphs pulled from Bloomberg by analysts at bond manager M&G Investments and French bank BNP Paribas. They show eurozone government bond yield weighted by each country's GDP. So think of the charts as a rough approximation of the movement in borrowing costs for an imaginary United States of Europe. Up, up and away since the start of October is the quick summary.
Read It
The Apocalypse Trade
In particular, market expectations seem to assume that the ECB will remain utterly indifferent to its responsibilities. The German breakeven rate, an implicit forecast of inflation over the next 5 years, is just 1 percent. That’s a disaster level, implying severe deflation in the debtor nations — or, more likely, a euro breakup.
All American Investor
Everyone Knew They Were Making Liar Loans (Mortgages)
Wednesday, November 23, 2011
CNBC Portfolio Challenge Bonus Bucks Answers for Thanksgiving, November 24, 2011
ANSWER: 4.5 to 5%
2. According to the 2011 survey on the “Cost of a Thanksgiving Dinner,” what is the increase in the price of a pound of cranberries since last year?
ANSWER: 7 cents
3. UK inflation, currently at 5 percent, has ate into people's purchasing power. But which "category" has been hit hardest by inflation?
Answer: baby boomer (aged 45 - 65)
UK inflation, currently at 5 percent, has ate into people's purchasing power. But which "category" has been hit hardest by inflation?
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UK inflation, currently at 5 percent, has ate into people's purchasing power. But which "category" has been hit hardest by inflation?
Answer: baby boomer (aged 45 - 65)
CNBC Bonus Bucks Answers
According to the 2011 survey on the “Cost of a Thanksgiving Dinner,” what is the increase in the price of a pound of cranberries since last year?
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According to the 2011 survey on the “Cost of a Thanksgiving Dinner,” what is the increase in the price of a pound of cranberries since last year?
ANSWER: 7 cents
CNBC Bonus Bucks Answers
The Head of Investment Strategy at AMP Capital expects China's November inflation figures to come in at what level?
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The Head of Investment Strategy at AMP Capital expects China's November inflation figures to come in at what level?
ANSWER: 4.5 to 5%
CNBC Bonus Bucks Answers
@AllAmerInvest German Bond Disaster, China Doink, Corzine, Bonus Bucks, Russian Missiles, Eurozone Recession
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@AllAmerInvest German Bond Disaster, China Doink, Corzine, Bonus Bucks, Russian Missiles, Eurozone Recession
I cannot recall a worse auction, only EUR 3.889 Bln of bids in total for a EUR 6.0 Bln auction, and this is the new 10yr benchmark, and that is a cover of 0.65x. IF Germany can only manage this sort of participation, what hope for the rest. YIELDS are at completely the wrong level.
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German 10-year bond auction a "disaster"
A "disastrous" sale of German benchmark bonds sparked fears on Wednesday the debt crisis was beginning to threaten even Berlin, with the Bundesbank forced to dig deep into its pockets to ensure the auction did not fail.
China manufacturing slows to 32-month low
Chinese manufacturing has hit the brakes, slowing to a 32-month low in November and raising concerns about a global economic slowdown, according to a preliminary report issued Wednesday.
Fed Introduces New Bank Stress Tests
the Federal Reserve launched the 2012 review, issuing instructions to the firms, including the macroeconomic and financial market scenarios the Federal Reserve is requiring institutions to use to support the stress testing used in their capital plans. As a part of the review, known as the Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR), the Federal Reserve in 2012 will carry out a supervisory stress test based on the same stress scenario provided to the firms to support its analysis of the adequacy of the firms' capital.
All American Investor
CNBC Bonus Bucks Answers for Wedneday, November 23
PERSONAL INCOME AND OUTLAYS OCTOBER 2011
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $8.2 billion, or 0.1 percent. In September, personal income increased $15.5 billion, or 0.1 percent, DPI increased $7.8 billion, or 0.1 percent, and PCE increased $74.5 billion, or 0.7 percent, based on revised estimates.
Real disposable income increased 0.3 percent in October, in contrast to a decrease of 0.1 percent in September. Real PCE increased 0.1 percent, compared with an increase of 0.5 percent.
Read the details at the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
All American Investor
Subscriber Alert Gold bounced in textbook fashion
11/23/11
GLD bounced off the lower boundary of its intermediate term up trend in text book fashion. Our Portfolios are Adding to their position in GLD taking it to circa 12% of the total Portfolio.
Several stocks hit trading Stop Loss prices yesterday, all in the Aggressive Growth Portfolio. Accordingly, it is reducing these positions from full positions to 75% positions. They include Qualtiy Systems, HollyFrontier, Walgreen. The reason I am not getting more aggressive in these sales is that our internal indicator continues to look reasonably healthy.
Tuesday, November 22, 2011
CNBC Bonus Bucks Answers for Wedneday, November 23
ANSWER: at least 10
2. Mr Yen, or Eisuke Sakakibara, expects the Japanese authorities to intervene in the forex market once again when the yen reaches what level against the dollar?
ANSWER: 75
3. In a recent interview on CNBC’s Squawk Box, trader Kevin Ferry of Cronus Futures Management compared long-term interest rates to a:
Answer: “Hot, sexy girl”
Subscriber Alert It's the Germans, stupid
11/22/11
The indices were off big again yesterday. After one more day’s delay the S&P confirmed the break below the lower boundary of its short term up trend as well as the 1230 support level. In addition, the DJIA broke its short term up trend, putting the Averages back in sync--this time to the downside.
Two things are keeping me confused: (1) the VIX rose only fractionally on a major sell off, continuing its very atypical behavior. I have yet to hear an adequate explanation for this. (2) our internal indicator continues to look reasonably healthy, certainly much more so than would be normal in a 3.5% sell off/break in the S&P. Whatever the reasons, these indicators keep me comfortable that the lows of the current trading range (10725, 1101) will hold.
@AllAmerInvest Turkey Edition
All American Investor
How many turkey's do you have in your portfolio?
A lady was picking through the frozen turkeys at the grocery store, but couldn't find one big enough for her family. She asked the stock boy, "Do these turkeys get any bigger?"
The stock boy answered, "No ma'am, they're dead."
Teacher: "Why do we have a Thanksgiving holiday?"
Student: "So we know when to start Christmas shopping!"
Monday, November 21, 2011
CNBC Bonus Bucks Answers for Tuesday, November 21
ANSWER: Tesco
2. Chicago apartment owned by Oprah Winfrey is available to rent for $15,000 a month. What did she pay for it and when did she buy it?
ANSWER: $5.6 million in 2006
3. Exports make up what percentage of China's GDP according to the story "Tough Decisions Face China as Global Woes Grow"?
Answer: 30%
CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge
What UK stock does billionaire investor Warren Buffet want to buy more of if the price decreases?
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What UK stock does billionaire investor Warren Buffet want to buy more of if the price decreases?
ANSWER: Tesco
CNBC Bonus Bucks Answers
@AllAmerInvest Sovereign Risk Spreading, Undermine Occupy Movement, Bonus Bucks, Global Debt, Medicare Doink, Stocks Doink
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@AllAmerInvest Sovereign Risk Spreading, Undermine Occupy Movement, Bonus Bucks, Global Debt, Medicare Doink, Stocks Doink
Consider that at least 50% of each EMU member’s sovereign debt is held by the non domestic sector, and that 85% of claims against sovereigns of the Euro area are held by residents of the area itself, mostly highly integrated and levered financial institutions. Similarly, the risk of an exit from EMU of any of its constituents would result in the breakup of an irrevocable international agreement, with grave ramifications for the system of payments. No wonder banks around the Euro area are selling government securities and depositing the proceeds with the ECB, as Jernej Omahen has recently documented.
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Bank Lobbyists Outline Attack On Occupy Wall Street To 'Undermine' Protests
One high profile DC lobbying group has pitched the American Bankers Association (ABA) to launch an $850,000 campaign to discredit the Occupy Wall Street (OWS) movement, and smear politicians sympathetic to the cause.
All American Investor
CNBC Bonus Bucks Answers, Monday, November 21
Stocks Down Size Early, Should Find Near Term Support
All American Investor
Sunday, November 20, 2011
60 Minutes Interview with Christine LaGarde (Video and Transcript)
She took over the IMF in July after a sex scandal forced her predecessor, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, to resign.
At nearly six feet tall with her striking silver hair, Lagarde's physical presence is as formidable as her reputation. She'll need those attributes and then some to keep the overwhelming debts of countries like Greece and Italy from setting off a worldwide recession.
We interviewed Christine Lagarde Friday, at the end of another turbulent week for world markets.
CNBC Bonus Bucks Answers, Monday, November 21
ANSWER: UBS
2. Consumers in Hong Kong and mainland China will make up what percentage of global luxury sales by 2020, according to CLSA Asia Pacific Markets' research.
ANSWER: 44%
3. According to a DuPont report for 2011, what is the most popular color for new car buyers in North America?
Answer: White/pearl
According to a DuPont report for 2011, what is the most popular color for new car buyers in North America
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According to a DuPont report for 2011, what is the most popular color for new car buyers in North America
Answer: White/pearl
CNBC Bonus Bucks Answers
Consumers in Hong Kong and mainland China will make up what percentage of global luxury sales by 2020, according to CLSA Asia Pacific Markets' research
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Consumers in Hong Kong and mainland China will make up what percentage of global luxury sales by 2020, according to CLSA Asia Pacific Markets' research
ANSWER: 44%
CNBC Bonus Bucks Answers
Occupy London Stock Exchange demonstrators announced on Friday they had “repossessed” a building belonging to an investment bank. Which bank owns the building the activists gained access to?
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Occupy London Stock Exchange demonstrators announced on Friday they had “repossessed” a building belonging to an investment bank. Which bank owns the building the activists gained access to?
ANSWER: UBS
CNBC Bonus Bucks Answers
M2, Money Supply Billions of Dollars, Percent Change from A Year Ago (Graph, 1111)
Seasonally adjusted M2 is computed by summing savings deposits, small-denomination time deposits, and retail MMMFs, each seasonally adjusted separately, and adding this result to seasonally adjusted M1
Billions of Dollars
All American Investor
Saturday, November 19, 2011
The Closing Bell Whence Germany?
Statistical Summary
Current Economic Forecast
2011
Real Growth in Gross Domestic Product: +1.5- +2.5%
Inflation: 2-3 %
Growth in Corporate Profits: 7-12%
2012
Real Growth in Gross Domestic Product (revised): +1.0- +2.0%
Inflation (revised): 2.5-3.5 %
Growth in Corporate Profits (revised): 5-10%
Current Market Forecast
Qualcomm (QCOM) 2011 Review
QCOM has grown profits at a 20%+ annual rate over the last 10 years; and has raised its dividend per share from an initial $.09 in 2003 to $.81 in 2011. It has done this while earning a 15%+ return on equity. The company future appears equally promising as a result of:
Friday, November 18, 2011
Thoughts on Investing from Mark Cuban
But Wall Street needs a marketing slogan doesn’t it ? How else are they going to get all the suckers back into the market ? (Great article on the Stock market is for Suckers from Macleans.ca). So what’s the new mantra that all those brokers, mutual funds and ETF’s want you to buy in to ?
Morning Journal One futures/options firm exits because the game is rigged
This Week’s Data
The November Philadelphia Fed index of general business conditions came in at 3.6 versus expectations of 8.8 and the October reading of 8.7.
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Philly-Fed-Business-Outlook.php
Other
US debt approaches 98% of GDP (medium):
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/Lance-Roberts-111117-Debt-to-GDP.php
Update of M2 (short):
http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2011/11/m2-update.html
@AllAmerInvest How to Lose More than 100% on a Loan, ‘Vassals’ in Congress , Euro Imploding, Bonus Bucks
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@AllAmerInvest How to Lose More than 100% on a Loan, ‘Vassals’ in Congress , Euro Imploding, Bonus Bucks
“To be Boscoved,” said Trepp, is to suffer losses on a loan of more than 100 percent of the amount lent. That happened on all five of the loans that were included in the Bank of America Commercial Mortgage Series 2006-3, a securitization sold by the bank in 2006.
![]() |
| A former Boscov's store in Glen Burnie, Md. Five loans on Boscov's stores lost more than 100 percent of the amount that was lent. |
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All American Investor
CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge Bonus Bucks Answers, Friday, November 18
The Morning Call What will Germany do?
Technical
Yesterday was pretty grim; although the DJIA (11770) did close within its intermediate term trading ranges (10725-12919) and its short term up trend (11660-12564). However, it did break below the lower boundary of the pennant pattern mentioned in yesterday’s Morning Call.
The S&P remains within its intermediate term trading range (1101-1372) but finished the day below the lower boundaries of both its short term up trend (1232-1348) and its comparable pennant formation.
This pin action activates our time and distance discipline on (1) the S&P break below its short term up trend and (2) both Average’s downside break from their respective pennant formation. Given the magnitude of those breaks, unless we get a sharp reversal today, the distance element will confirm that all three challenges as successful.
Thursday, November 17, 2011
CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge Bonus Bucks Answers, Friday, November 18
ANSWER: 1.3 percent
2. Despite the U.S. consumer confidence at recession levels, Smead Capital Management believes its time to buy shares of consumer discretionary stocks. Which ones does it suggest?
ANSWER: Walgreen, Starbucks, Nordstrom
3. According to Hiring For Attitude, one of CNBC.com’s best books for the holidays, what percentage of newly hired employees fail within 18 months?
Answer: 46 Percent
CNBC Bonus Bucks Answers
Morning Journal, The myth that we need higher taxes
This Week’s Data
October industrial production rose 0.7% versus expectations of an increase of 0.4%; capacity utilization came in at 77.8 versus estimates of 77.7.
http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2011/11/16/stronger-than-expected-industrial-production.html
Weekly jobless claims fell 2,000 versus expectations of a 7,000 increase.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/11/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims-four.html
October housing starts declined 30,000 versus estimates of a 58,000 drop; building permits jumped 64,000 versus an anticipated rise of 16,000.
Other
The myth that we need higher taxes (short):
http://pragcap.com/you-need-to-pay-higher-taxes-so-we-dont-become-greece-or-italy
@AllAmerInvest Europe Risky Swaps (Video), Hyperinflation Scare, Bonus Bucks, Greed is Good, Doink, Doink, Doink
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@AllAmerInvest Europe Risky Swaps (Video), Hyperinflation Scare, Bonus Bucks, Greed is Good, Doink, Doink, Doink
European banks, increasingly concerned about their ability to access funding, are devising complex and potentially risky new deals that enable them to continue borrowing from the European Central Bank.
The banks' moves, which include behind-the-scenes swapping of assets among financial institutions, could heighten risk across Europe's already fragile financial system, say some senior industry officials and regulators.
The Morning Call, The Bond Vigilantes at Work
Technical
After spending most of the daily recovering from an early sell off, the Averages (DJIA 11905, S&P 1236) gave up the rebound in the last hour. Nevertheless, both index closed within its intermediate term trading range (10725-12919, 1101-1372) and its short term up trend (11597-12546, 1231-1347). On the very short term, I continue to watch 1230 (last support level) on the down side and 1265-1275 (short term resistance as well as the S&P 200 day moving average) on the up side.
Volume rose; breadth declined. The VIX rose, leaving in the upper zone of its current trading range (negative for stocks).
GLD was weak again, but remains well within its intermediate term up trend,
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/eu-gold-investment-demand-surges-135-world-demand-6-q3-2011
Bottom line: well, there was no bid under the Market yesterday; although between the bond vigilantes and our own beloved super committee, it is a wonder that the pin action wasn’t much worse. In the end, how the Market breaks out of the tight(ening) spread between support and resistance will likely determine price direction through year end.
As you know, my bet was that seasonal factors would govern trading through the Holidays and get prices close to the upper boundary of the current trading range. But if support can’t hold, then I will clearly have to re-think the trading position that was established in the Aggressive Growth Portfolio.
Wednesday, November 16, 2011
CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge Bonus Bucks Answers, Thursday, November 17
ANSWER: $3.3 billion
2. According to chartist Daryl Guppy, the upside for Nymex oil over the next few weeks is capped at?
ANSWER: $110-115
3. According to CNBC.com's guest writer Shaun Rein, which luxury brand is getting too popular for its own good in China?
Answer: Louis Vuitton
Rockwell Collins (COL) 2011 Review
The company has grown earnings and dividends 16-18% annually over the last five years while earning a 30%+ return on equity. Despite the impact of the economic malaise on the airline and private aircraft industries, earnings are resuming their long term growth rate due to:
(1) strong demand from the commercial aircraft industry,
(2) margin expansion,
(3) aftermarket sales are ramping up strongly.
Morning Journal Government directed industrial policy doesn't work
03:30 PM Microsoft's (MSFT +1.3%) annual meeting underwhelmed those attending with only a strictly-enforced 15 minute window to ask questions of Chairman Bill Gates and CEO Steve Ballmer. Shareholders at the meeting - already edgy with MSFT mired in a $20-$30 trading range for a decade - only heard from Gates once during the meeting as he defended the firm's controversial enormous cash stockpile: "You want to retain enough (cash) so the company has the strength to be able to take big risks even in the face of some economic uncertainty." Comment!
02:58 PM Chevron (CVX -3%) shares remain under pressure after a report that an oil spill off Brazil "could be 10 times bigger" than official estimates. Other stocks affected: Transocean (RIG -4.9%), which reportedly operated the CVX well; Petrobras (PBR +0.4%), which owns a 30% stake in the well; Clean Harbors (CLH +2.2%), which offers environmental cleanup services on customer sites.
@AllAmerInvest Bullet Hits White House (Video), World Flawed Bill Gross, Gingrich Gets Paid, Bonus Bucks, Steve Jobs
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@AllAmerInvest Bullet Hits White House (Video), World Flawed Bill Gross, Gingrich Gets Paid, Bonus Bucks, Steve Jobs
Bill Gross: We've Discovered That The World Had A 'Flawed Business Model'
The world is changing and the old model of debt-driven growth is now just "a flawed business model," according to PIMCO's Bill Gross
The Morning Call A new investor psychology? + update on the $1 million challenge
Technical
The indices (DJIA 12096, S&P 1257) inched higher yesterday, remaining within their intermediate term trading ranges (10725-12919, 1101-1372) and their short term up trends (11565-12478, 1227-1341). I continue to believe that the important ‘areas to watch’ near term are S&P 1230 on the down side and 1275-1285 on the upside.
Something else to which to pay attention (chart):
http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2011/11/15/sound-and-fury-signifying-nothing.html
Volume improved a bit, as did breadth. The VIX traded up slightly, staying within the upper zone of its current trading range (a negative for stocks).
Consumer Price Index - October 2011
Over the last 12 months,the all items index increased 3.5 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Read the Details
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The Quest: Energy, Security, and the Remaking of the Modern World
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Tuesday, November 15, 2011
CNBC Portfolio Challenge Bonus Bucks Answers for Wednesday, November 16, 2011
ANSWER: 500,000
2. Which 2011 member of Congress has an estimated minimum net worth of $44.21?
ANSWER: Rep. Vern Buchanan (R.-Fla.)
3. UK Chancellor George Osborne and other ministers are drawing up plans for a big increase in infrastructure spending in the country. How much money will be involved for the projects?
Answer: $80 billion
Microsoft (MSFT) 2011 Review
The company has earned between 30-40% return on equity over the last 10 years and has grown its earnings and dividends at a 12%+ pace over the last five years. MSFT was impacted by the recent economic down turn, but is returning to above average earnings growth as a result of:
(1) the introduction of Windows 7 is benefiting from its commanding position in the PC market,
(2) expansion into the mobile space,
Morning Journal Great economic data, but will it trump Europe?
This Week’s Data
October producer prices fell 0.3% versus expectations of a 0.1% drop: core PPI was unchanged versus estimates of a 0.1% rise.
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/PPI-Headline-and-Core.php
October retail sales surged +0.5% versus forecasts of a 0.2% increase; ex autos, sales were up 0.3% versus expectations of them being unchanged.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/11/retail-sales-increased-05-in-october.html
The Morning Call Europe remains on edge
Technical
The indices (DJIA 12075, S&P 1251) drifted lower yesterday on little news and almost no volume. However, they closed within their intermediate term trading ranges (10725-12919, 1101-1372) as well as the short term up trends (11565-12514, 1227-1341).
As I noted in yesterday’s Morning Call, near term the areas to watch (1) on the upside is 1265/1275 which coincides with two trading boundaries as well as the S&P 200 day moving average and (2) on the down side 1230.
@AllAmerInvest Forbes Five Star, Occupy Wall Street Doink, CNBC Bonus Bucks Answers, Health, Bond Yields Explode
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@AllAmerInvest Forbes Five Star, Occupy Wall Street Doink, CNBC Bonus Bucks Answers, Health, Bond Yields Explode
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| Mandarin Oriental, Singapore is a new Five-Star hotel |
Forbes Travel Guide unveiled its 54th annual listing of Five- and Four-Star award-winning hotels, restaurants and spas today, along with a new website, Startle.com. The interactive site gives readers an inside look into the world of the Forbes Travel Guide’s team of inspectors as it scours the globe looking for the ultimate in luxury travel at these top-rated spots.
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New York Police Remove Occupy Wall Street Protesters
New York City police in riot gear swept into a Lower Manhattan park to remove Occupy Wall Street protesters early today following similar moves that shut down camps in Oakland, California, and Portland, Oregon.
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CNBC Portfolio Challenge Bonus Bucks Answers for Tuesday, November 15, 2011
Monday, November 14, 2011
CNBC Portfolio Challenge Bonus Bucks Answers for Tuesday, November 15, 2011
For the time being, talk among yourselves.
1.
ANSWER:
2.
ANSWER:
3.
Answer:
60 Minutes Congress Trading Stock on Inside Information? (Video)
To see the video and transcript go here.
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Morning Journal The future of Europe
04:06 PM CME Group (CME +1.3%) says it will guarantee $300M to MF Global's (MFGLQ.PK) trustee to allow for the quicker distribution of funds to disgruntled clients. It adds, "The failure of MF Global and the firm's mishandling of customer segregated funds is absolutely uncharted territory for this industry." (previously) Comment!
12:24 PM Boeing (BA +3.4%) announces a deal to work with Hawai'i BioEnergy on renewable biofuels for aviation. A variety of crops, byproducts, types of algae, and nutrients have been looked as a source for biofuels, but Boeing is locking in on sorghum and eucalyptus as potential sources that can be grown locally and converted to jet fuel. Though flights from airline carriers launched this week powered by biofuels - the million-dollar (or billion-dollar?) question remains: Can it work at scale? Comment!
07:53 AM Boeing's (BA) 787 Dreamliner program could see some "breathing room" following Airbus' (EADSY.PK) announcement of a delay in its A350 production. After repeated delays at Boeing significantly narrowed the competitive edge the 787 hoped to claim from hitting the market first, the momentum may be shifting back towards Boeing's favor. Comment!
10:49 AM W.W. Grainger (GWW +1.9%) moves up after reporting its October daily sales rose 16% Y/Y, due in part to recent acquisitions. U.S. sales, which account for most of the company's top line, rose 9%, Canada climbed 16%, while other businesses, which include the recently acquired Fabory Group, more than doubled. Comment!
08:45 AM Goldman is pounding the table for McDonald's (MCD), believing the company's big investments in advertising, restaurant remodeling, and technology improvements will pay off. The firm adds it expects "continued share gains as [McDonald's] widens the gap between itself and competitors. (previously) Comment!
The Morning Call-Monday Morning Chartology 11/14/11
Technical
Monday Morning Chartology
The S&P closed Friday well within its intermediate term trading range and short term up trend. Today I will be watching the area marked by the orange line. The horizontal line is the rough level of the 200 day moving average, the slopping line is a very short term down trend. We, of course, want the S&P to plow through both.

GLD remains the stalwart in our Portfolios.

The VIX is now resting right on the lower boundary of that upper zone in its trading range. (lower is better).

Fundamental
Earnings season wrap up (short):
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/11/earnings-season-update/
Confused? Don’t feel like the Lone Ranger (short)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/even-jp-morgan-staying-out-10-sigma-market
@AllAmerInvest Stock Cheats, Boeing Deal, Buffett Oil to China, Housing Muddle
Congress Trading Stock on Inside Information? (Video, Transcript)
Steve Kroft reports that members of Congress can legally trade stock based on non-public information from Capitol Hill.
Boeing's (BA) $18 billion deal is biggest ever
Boeing and Emirates Airlines have signed an $18 billion deal -- the largest deal in the aircraft manufacturer's history -- to supply the airline with 50 aircraft, with options to expand the deal even further.
CNBC Portfolio Challenge Bonus Bucks Answers for Monday, November 14, 2011
Congress Trading Stock on Inside Information? (Video, Transcript)
If you don't see the video go here.
Sunday, November 13, 2011
CNBC Portfolio Challenge Bonus Bucks Answers for Monday, November 14, 2011
ANSWER: 0.5 percent
2. Selling your house on the Internet isn’t easy and trying to sell it without photos of the front of the house or the interior makes it even more difficult. What three-time presidential candidate forgot to include these photos on their official home website?
ANSWER: Ron Paul
3. According to CNBC.com’s rankings based on the World Bank’s “Ease of Doing Business” study, what is the “worst” country for business?
Answer: Venezuela
According to CNBC.com’s rankings based on the World Bank’s “Ease of Doing Business” study, what is the “worst” country for business?
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According to CNBC.com’s rankings based on the World Bank’s “Ease of Doing Business” study, what is the “worst” country for business?
Answer: Venezuela
CNBC Bonus Bucks Answers
Selling your house on the Internet isn’t easy and trying to sell it without photos of the front of the house or the interior makes it even more difficult. What three-time presidential candidate forgot to include these photos on their official home website?
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Selling your house on the Internet isn’t easy and trying to sell it without photos of the front of the house or the interior makes it even more difficult. What three-time presidential candidate forgot to include these photos on their official home website?
ANSWER: Ron Paul
CNBC Bonus Bucks Answers
Interest rates from the Bank of England are at a historic low, and on Thursday, November 10th the BoE decided to keep them there. Where do rates stand?
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Interest rates from the Bank of England are at a historic low, and on Thursday, November 10th the BoE decided to keep them there. Where do rates stand?
ANSWER: 0.5 percent
CNBC Bonus Bucks Answers
Saturday, November 12, 2011
The Closing Bell-Europe continues improve; the 'super committee' not so much
Statistical Summary
Current Economic Forecast
2011
Real Growth in Gross Domestic Product: +1.5- +2.5%
Inflation: 2-3 %
Growth in Corporate Profits: 7-12%
2012
Real Growth in Gross Domestic Product (revised): +1.0- +2.0%
Inflation (revised): 2.5-3.5 %
Growth in Corporate Profits (revised): 5-10%
Current Market Forecast
Dow Jones Industrial Average
Current Trend (revised):
Short Term Up Trend 11551-12478
Intermediate Term Trading Range 10725-12919
Long Term Trading Range 7148-14180
Very LT Up Trend 4187-14789
2011 Year End Fair Value 10750-10770
2012 Year End Fair Value 11290-11310
Standard & Poor’s 500
Current Trend (revised):
Short Term Up Trend 1225-1339
Intermediate/Short Term Trading Range 1101-1372
Long Term Trading Range 766-1575
Very LT Up Trend 644-2000
2011 Year End Fair Value 1320-1340
2012 Year End Fair Value 1390-1410
Percentage Cash in Our Portfolios
Dividend Growth Portfolio 14%
High Yield Portfolio 13%
Aggressive Growth Portfolio 9%*
*includes a 5% position in a market ETF as a trading position.
Friday, November 11, 2011
Thoughts on Investing from Dividends 4 Life
I. Valuation Matters
There comes a point where every stock is simply too expensive to buy. In these circumstances, you are better off finding other alternatives.
II. Time Helps Correct Our Mistakes
The trend of the market and most stocks is up, over time. Given a reasonable entry point, time will most often be on your side.
Morning Journal The trade deficit and unemployment
04:03 AM Exxon (XOM) becomes the first "supermajor" oil company to enter Kurdistan, signing contracts to explore for oil and gas in six blocks. The deal risks the wrath of the Iraqi government, but the lure of 45B barrels of oil and 100,000B-200,000B cubic feet of gas in Kurdistan could be too good to leave to the independents. Comment!
02:51 PM Caterpillar's (CAT +0.8%) bid to buy ERA Mining is in the stretch run with final details of the $6.9B merger still being hammered out. One of the bigger items on the table is if the deal will be an all-cash offer or be financed by a note with a valuation tied to the gross profit of the company. Comment!
02:41 PM Canadian National Railway (CNI +2.1%) trades higher after announcing an agreement with Coalspur Mines (CSPZF.PK) to develop a logistics supply chain for transporting thermal coal from Coalspur's Vista coal project in Alberta to Western Canadian ports starting in 2015. Comment!
09:30 AM PepsiCo (PEP) continues its attempts to diversify beyond its core soft drink business and expand its international presence, acquiring Brazilian cookie manufacturer Mabel. The move comes on the heels of PepsiCo's September acquisition of Argentine cookie concern Dilexis. Comment!
Economics
@AllAmerInvest Economic Amnesia, Fail, Elite Schooling Free, Bonus Bucks, Bernanke, NYC Sees Gains
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@AllAmerInvest Economic Amnesia, Fail, Elite Schooling Free, Bonus Bucks, Bernanke, NYC Sees Gains
What do you think, dear reader? Do you think Ginnie Mae — inventor of the mortgage-backed derivative — has also invented a model that allows the government to have its cake and eat it too? Can the feds sell debt to American consumers...make a profit out of it...and also render a good service to the public?
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Legends of the Fail
This is the way the euro ends — not with a bang but with bunga bunga. Not long ago, European leaders were insisting that Greece could and should stay on the euro while paying its debts in full. Now, with Italy falling off a cliff, it’s hard to see how the euro can survive at all.
Free College: How to Audit Courses From 7 Elite Schools Online
Getting accepted to a prestigious Ivy League school has its perks — and its price tag. But thanks to the Internet, you don’t have to take on mountains of debt to snag a piece of that educational pie.
CNBC Bonus Bucks Answers for Friday, November 11, 2011
The Morning Call The world didn't end
The indices (DJIA 11893, S&P 1239) recovered modestly yesterday, leaving them within both their intermediate term trading ranges (10725-12919, 1101-1372) and their short term up trends (11522-12472, 1221-1334). Importantly, both are safely above the 11719, 1230 resistance turned support level.
Volume declined; breadth improved with the flow of funds demonstrating real strength of late. The VIX fell but remains well within the upper zone of its current trading range (negative for stocks).
GLD was off again; but only a bit and it remains within its intermediate term up trend.
Bottom line: the Averages bounced off the 11719, 1230 support level which was a plus for the bulls; so we can start thinking about the upside again, at least for a day. That said, the indices still have to overcome their 200 day moving average; plus there is now a minor resistance level at the recent trading tops (1275-1290 on the S&P). Those become the initial levels to watch on the upside.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-10/s-p-500-fails-second-time-to-stay-above-200-day-average-after-jumping-20-.html
Thursday, November 10, 2011
CNBC Bonus Bucks Answers for Friday, November 11, 2011
ANSWER: a "mafia boss"
2. According to the author of a book about the history of MTV, the cable channel’s relationship with the record labels passed through these four distinct phases:
ANSWER: Disdain, resentment, dependence, indignation
3. The stock market of which emerging economy is the worst performer of the year, but still holds long-term promise, according to CNBC's guest writer Michael Yoshikami of YCMNET Advisors.
Answer: India
The stock market of which emerging economy is the worst performer of the year, but still holds long-term promise, according to CNBC's guest writer Michael Yoshikami of YCMNET Advisors
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The stock market of which emerging economy is the worst performer of the year, but still holds long-term promise, according to CNBC's guest writer Michael Yoshikami of YCMNET Advisors
Answer: India
CNBC Bonus Bucks Answers
According to the author of a book about the history of MTV, the cable channel’s relationship with the record labels passed through these four distinct phases
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According to the author of a book about the history of MTV, the cable channel’s relationship with the record labels passed through these four distinct phases
ANSWER: Disdain, resentment, dependence, indignation
CNBC Bonus Bucks Answers
While questioning former News Corp executive James Murdoch in UK parliament on Thursday, Labour MP Tom Watson compared James, the son of Rupert Murdoch, to what?
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While questioning former News Corp executive James Murdoch in UK parliament on Thursday, Labour MP Tom Watson compared James, the son of Rupert Murdoch, to what?
ANSWER: a "mafia boss"
CNBC Bonus Bucks Answers
Morning Journal Let the Banks fail
02:58 PM Russian oil services group Integra says it will merge its Schlumberger (SLB) JV with Russian seismic specialist Geotech and list the new firm on London's stock exchange. Integra will own 36% of the new firm, to be called IG Seismic Services, while SLB will hold 12%. Comment!
11:33 AM General Mills (GIS -0.9%) reaffirms its FY12 guidance for mid-single digit EPS growth after factoring out costs associated with the integration of Yoplait. The company has steered clear of some of the speed bumps that have hit rival Kellogg (K -1.1%) with shares now trading just a dollar off of their 52-week highs. Comment!
Economics
The Morning Call Is it really all over for Italy? + Subscriber alert
Technical
The indices (DJIA 11780, S&P 1229) suffered some serious whackage yesterday. Nevertheless, they closed (1) within their intermediate term trading ranges (10725-12919, 1101-1372), (2) within their short term up trends (11522-12472, 1221-1334) and held the 11719, 1230 [OK, it finished slightly below] resistance turned support level. So it is important to remember that despite the yesterday’s gut wrenching pin action, no trend has been violated.
Volume was up; breadth, as you might expect, plummeted. The VIX soared 30% and is back in that upper zone of its current trading range (negative for stocks).
GLD was off fractionally but remains well within its intermediate term up trend.
Bottom line: the S&P 200 day moving average proved much tougher resistance than I had expected. The $64,000 question today is, will 11719, 1230 offer equally formidable support? Whatever happens, given the proximity of the lower boundary of the short term up trends to the aforementioned support levels, it is likely that the short term trend will experience the same fate as 11719, 1230, i.e. if 11719, 1230 breaks so too will the short term up trends. So today could be a critical.
@AllAmerinvest Charts Gold, S and P, Inflation, CSCO
S&P 500 Index (E-Mini S&P 500 December 2011)
Trend sideways, slightly up. Near term support 1195 , Near term resistance 1292.
S&P 500 Fails Second Time to Stay Above 200-Day Average After Jumping 20%
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CNBC Portfolio Challenge Bonus Bucks Answers for Thursday, November 10, 2011
Wednesday, November 09, 2011
CNBC Portfolio Challenge Bonus Bucks Answers for Thursday, November 10, 2011
ANSWER: $30 Billion
2. What is the Dow's target for January according to chartist Daryl Guppy?
ANSWER: 12,600
3. With companies in the S&P 500 stock index reporting record profits, why aren’t stock prices also hitting record highs, according to Fast Money’s Karen Finerman
Answer: “The expectation is that earnings may decline if Europe can’t get out of its own way.”
With companies in the S&P 500 stock index reporting record profits, why aren’t stock prices also hitting record highs, according to Fast Money’s Karen Finerman
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With companies in the S&P 500 stock index reporting record profits, why aren’t stock prices also hitting record highs, according to Fast Money’s Karen Finerman
Answer: “The expectation is that earnings may decline if Europe can’t get out of its own way.”
CNBC Bonus Bucks Answers
What is the Dow's target for January according to chartist Daryl Guppy?
ANSWER: 12,600
CNBC Bonus Bucks Answers
Greg Dove of the National Flea Market Association, noted that the flea market industry has estimated annual sales of how much?
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Greg Dove of the National Flea Market Association, noted that the flea market industry has estimated annual sales of how much?
ANSWER: $30 Billion
CNBC Bonus Bucks Answers
Nucor (NUE) 2011 Review
The company has grown profits and dividends at a 10-20% pace over the last 10 years earning a return on equity as high as 35%. While the recent recession slowed that growth over the short term, the longer term outlook for NUE remains bright because:
(1) a large percentage of sales are covered by long term contracts which stabilizes its production and includes surcharges allowing it to pass on higher raw material costs,
(2) management’s focus on innovative and cost efficient ways to produce steel,
Sysco (SYY) 2011 Review
It achieved a 13-17% growth in profits and dividends over the last 10 years earning an almost 30% return on equity. The economic down turn modestly impacted Sysco’s profitability as restaurant sales declined and bad debt expenses increased. The company has recovered as it:
(1) is benefiting from increased volume,
(2) improves its business services division by offering a fresh online order management system, implement new programs designed improve trailers loadings, automatically scan orders and manage fleet maintenance,
@AllAmerInvest MF Global You're Doinked, Bernanke Faces Perry, Bonus Bucks, Pony up for Italian Bonds, Roubini warns of catastrophe for Goldman Sachs
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@AllAmerInvest MF Global You're Doinked, Bernanke Faces Perry, Bonus Bucks, Pony up for Italian Bonds, Roubini warns of catastrophe for Goldman Sachs
Unlike the shell game, there is no bean under the MF Global dixie cup. The mixed bag of marketable securities taken from customer segregated accounts, used most likely to meet margin calls and satisfy “important” customers closing accounts during the last days, will, in my opinion, never be seen again.
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| Jon Corzine looks happy |
Bernanke shows Fed's independence with Texas trip
Three months ago, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who is seeking the Republican presidential nod, had sent a veiled threat: Bernanke would be treated "ugly" in Texas if he continued to pursue ever-lower interest rates - a policy that Perry and some other critics say is akin to recklessly printing money.
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CNBC Bonus Bucks Answers for Wednesday, November 9, 2011













