Statistical Summary
Current Economic Forecast
2011
Real Growth in Gross Domestic Product: +1.5- +2.5%
Inflation: 2-3 %
Growth in Corporate Profits: 7-12%
2012
Real Growth in Gross Domestic Product (revised): +1.0- +2.0%
Inflation (revised): 2.5-3.5 %
Growth in Corporate Profits (revised): 5-10%
Current Market Forecast
Dow Jones Industrial Average
Current Trend (revised):
Intermediate Term Trading Range 10725-12919
Long Term Trading Range 7148-14180
Very LT Up Trend 4187-14789
2011 Year End Fair Value 10750-10770
2012 Year End Fair Value 11290-11310
Saturday, February 04, 2012
Friday, February 03, 2012
Thoughts on Investing--from Forbes
Thoughts on Investing--New Rules of Money, courtesy of Forbes
#1 Buy and Hold at your own Risk
These days buying a stock or fund and expecting to hold it forever is lazy and hazardous to your wealth.
A buy-and-hold strategy works well when markets generally go up for long periods of time. But it stopped working a decade ago. Says economist Gary Shilling: “From 1982 to 2000, buy and hold worked but now we’re in a down phase, a secular bear market where downturns are deeper and more frequent and bull moves are less robust. You need to be jungle fighter rather than an easy cruiser.”
Does this mean you have to become a day trader?
No, but you should monitor your holdings and be prepared to sell losers and buy into big new trends.
Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at Strategic Stock Investments is to help other investors build wealth and benefit from the investing lessons he learned the hard way.
#1 Buy and Hold at your own Risk
These days buying a stock or fund and expecting to hold it forever is lazy and hazardous to your wealth.
A buy-and-hold strategy works well when markets generally go up for long periods of time. But it stopped working a decade ago. Says economist Gary Shilling: “From 1982 to 2000, buy and hold worked but now we’re in a down phase, a secular bear market where downturns are deeper and more frequent and bull moves are less robust. You need to be jungle fighter rather than an easy cruiser.”
Does this mean you have to become a day trader?
No, but you should monitor your holdings and be prepared to sell losers and buy into big new trends.
Subscriber Alert-Use today's weakness to Add to GLD
SUBSCRIBER ALERT
2/3/12
The price of GLD is off today. Our Portfolios are using this weakness to Add to their holdings. This will bring the total positions to circa 7-8% of the total Portfolios.
Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at Strategic Stock Investments is to help other investors build wealth and benefit from the investing lessons he learned the hard way.
2/3/12
The price of GLD is off today. Our Portfolios are using this weakness to Add to their holdings. This will bring the total positions to circa 7-8% of the total Portfolios.
Morning Journal-NFP a blow out number
Economics
This Week’s Data
January nonfarm payrolls grew 243,000 versus expectations of +125,000; the unemployment rate dropped to 8.3%. This was a gangbusters number: prior months were revised up, the total workforce grew and hours worked increased.
Politics
Domestic
Ann Coulter considers Romneycare (medium):
http://www.anncoulter.com/columns/2012-02-01.html
An inside look at Obama from my favorite progressive (short):
http://dailycaller.com/2012/02/02/what-does-obama-do-all-day/
More from Andrew McCarthy on the republican establishment (medium):
http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/289905/big-government-republicans-andrew-c-mccarthy
And if think the above two articles are derisive of our political class, read this (medium):
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/mike-krieger-explains-why-its-leadership-stupid
This Week’s Data
January nonfarm payrolls grew 243,000 versus expectations of +125,000; the unemployment rate dropped to 8.3%. This was a gangbusters number: prior months were revised up, the total workforce grew and hours worked increased.
Politics
Domestic
Ann Coulter considers Romneycare (medium):
http://www.anncoulter.com/columns/2012-02-01.html
An inside look at Obama from my favorite progressive (short):
http://dailycaller.com/2012/02/02/what-does-obama-do-all-day/
More from Andrew McCarthy on the republican establishment (medium):
http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/289905/big-government-republicans-andrew-c-mccarthy
And if think the above two articles are derisive of our political class, read this (medium):
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/mike-krieger-explains-why-its-leadership-stupid
The Morning Call + Subscriber Alert + The fact pattern
The Market
Technical
The indices (DJIA 12705, S&P 1325) had a mixed day (S&P up, DJIA down) but both closed within their intermediate term trading ranges (10725-12919, 1101-1372) and above the lower boundary of their short term up trends (12315, 1272).
Volume remains anemic; breadth fell. The VIX declined and continues in its short term down trend.
GLD sparkled again. I keep saying that our Portfolios will Add to their holdings on weakness; but we don’t get any.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/getting-back-to-the-gold-standard-2012-02-02?link=home_carousel
Technical
The indices (DJIA 12705, S&P 1325) had a mixed day (S&P up, DJIA down) but both closed within their intermediate term trading ranges (10725-12919, 1101-1372) and above the lower boundary of their short term up trends (12315, 1272).
Volume remains anemic; breadth fell. The VIX declined and continues in its short term down trend.
GLD sparkled again. I keep saying that our Portfolios will Add to their holdings on weakness; but we don’t get any.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/getting-back-to-the-gold-standard-2012-02-02?link=home_carousel
Thursday, February 02, 2012
Is Prana's PBT2 The Alzheimer's Answer?
Prana Biotechnology (PRAN) Comments on Nature Medicine, PNAS and Journal of Alzheimer's Disease Articles That Highlight the Role of Metals in Neurological Diseases
Prana Biotechnology PRAN +4.22% (asx:PBT) today commented on three recent high profile scientific journal articles that the company believes provide support for Prana's therapeutic strategy for treating neurodegenerative disease.
All American Investor
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