As seen in the chart above the S&P 500 is range bound between the 1,041 (upper orange line) and 1,142 (lower red line) levels. Momentum as highlighted by the 14-week RSI is in a weakened state as well. Given the S&P 500 has now tested this 1,041 level on three separate occasions − February 2010, May 2010 and June 2010 − any additional test would increase the likelihood of a break.
Only a move back above the 100-day moving average (1,133 level and not seen in the chart above) above which the S&P 500 recently tried to rally, and failed, would turn the short-term trend positive.
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