Saturday, July 24, 2010

Recession Imminent? This Indicator Says Yes

ECRI Leading Indicator Breaches Critical -10 Threshold, Hits -10.5
clipped from
If in addition to 85% of the economic data releases in the past month coming below expectations was not enough, the ECRI leading indicator has just came below the critical threshold of -10%, which according to Rosenberg has virtually assured recessions based on data from the past 50 or so years, hitting an annualized rate of -10.5%. And since even the index creators (and Ivy League tenured professors) are openly refuting the adverse implications of their own index (when they, and everyone were praising it when it topped out at 27.80 a year ago), one can be sure this is a rather dramatic data point.
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Original content Bob DeMarco, All American Investor