Tuesday, October 25, 2011

Confidence Falls Most Among High-Income Consumers


The Conference Board‘s consumer confidence index dropped to 39.8 in October, a level more commonly seen during recessions than recoveries that are more than two years old.

Economists had expected the index to rise slightly.

All American Investor



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The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had slightly improved in September, declined in October. The Index now stands at 39.8 (1985=100), down from 46.4 in September. The Present Situation Index decreased to 26.3 from 33.3. The Expectations Index declined to 48.7 from 55.1 last month.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey®, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a leading global provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was October 13th.

Says Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center: "Consumer confidence is now back to levels last seen during the 2008-2009 recession. Consumer expectations, which had improved in September, gave back all of the gain and then some, as concerns about business conditions, the labor market and income prospects increased. Consumers' assessment of present-day conditions did not fare any better. The Present Situation Index posted its sixth consecutive monthly decline, as pessimism about the current economic environment continues to grow."

Consumers' appraisal of present-day conditions deteriorated further in October. Those claiming business conditions are "bad" increased to 43.7 percent from 40.5 percent, while those claiming business conditions are "good" decreased to 11.0 percent from 12.1 percent. Consumers' assessment of the labor market was also less favorable. Those claiming jobs are "plentiful" decreased to 3.4 percent from 5.6, however, those saying jobs are "hard to get" decreased to 47.1 percent from 49.4 percent.

Consumers' short-term outlook, which had improved last month, reversed course in October. Those expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months decreased to 9.1 percent from 11.8 percent, while those expecting business conditions to worsen edged down to 21.5 percent from 21.9 percent.

Consumers' outlook for the job market was slightly more pessimistic. Those anticipating more jobs in the months ahead edged down to 11.3 percent from 11.9 percent, while those expecting fewer jobs decreased to 27.4 percent from 28.6 percent. The proportion of consumers anticipating an increase in their incomes declined to 10.3 percent from 13.5 percent.




Original content Bob DeMarco, All American Investor