Tuesday, February 21, 2012

The Morning Call -- The Greeks get their deal, maybe



The Market
Technical

Tuesday Morning Chartology


The momentum is there; given the DJIA performance on Friday, a challenge of 1372 is surely coming.




GLD has re-set to a trading range with a fairly weak support level.



VIX is bouncing around a lot. It is still in a downtrend; the question is will 15.5 hold as a lower boundary.




The current rally in historical perspective (short):
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/02/rallies-following-30-bear-corrections-1900-present/

Update on the ‘best stock market indicator ever’:
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/John-Carlucci-Best-Indicator-Ever-Update.php

Fundamental

The Greeks have their bail out, at least a proposed one. The link below gives the basic terms of the deal. Note a couple of things: (1) the IMF [read you and me] will contribute, (2) the ECB will have ‘boots on the ground’ in Athens to insure compliance with the terms [think about that one in terms of national sovereignty], (3) the private investors [i.e. the ones who take the losses] haven’t voted on this yet, (4) nor has the German parliament.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/second-greek-re-bailout-terms-conditions-and-next-steps

Here is the reaction from der Spiegel:
http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/0,1518,816369,00.html

The good news is that if accepted by all parties, this will keep our ‘muddle through’ scenario in tact a while longer; the bad news is when it becomes obvious that this solution won’t work, the odds of continuing to ‘muddle through’ have gone down.

News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

More earnings per share reports:

Reported Expected

Medtronics $.84 $.84
Home Depot .50 .43

Economics

This Week’s Data

Other


Update on inflation (medium):
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/CPI-PCE-Comparison.php

Politics

Domestic


Your government at work (short):
http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2012/02/another-great-moment-in-socialism.html



Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at Strategic Stock Investments is to help other investors build wealth and benefit from the investing lessons he learned the hard way.