Wednesday, February 01, 2012

Morning Journal-The troubling trend in personal income


Economics

This Week’s Data


The International Council of Shopping Centers reported weekly sales of major retailers up 0.1% versus the prior week and up 3.9% versus the comparable period last year; Redbook Research reported month to date retail chain store sales down 1.8% versus the similar time frame last month but up 2.0% on a year over year basis.

The November Case Shiller home price index declined 0.7% versus October’s reading and 3.7% on a year over year basis.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/01/has-housing-bottomed/

The January Chicago purchasing managers index came in at 60.2 versus expectations of 63.0 and 62.5 posted in December.

The Conference Board’s January index of consumer confidence was reported at 61.1 versus estimates of 68.5 and December’s reading of 64.5.
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Conference-Board-Consumer-Confidence-Index.php


Weekly mortgage applications fell 2.9% while purchase applications were down 1.7%.

January ADP private payrolls report grew 170,000 versus forecasts of up 172,000.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/02/adp-private-employment-increased-170000.html

Other

More analysis of the troubling trend in personal income (medium):
http://www.capitalspectator.com/archives/2012/01/personal_income_2.html#more

How long can corporate profit margins remain at elevated levels (short):
http://www.businessinsider.com/corporate-profit-margins-2012-1

Employment trends in Europe (medium):
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/01/euro-area-unemployment-rate-up-02.html

If you are not familiar with how private equity works, this is a great explanation. It is a bit long, but it puts a lot of the political rhetoric of late in perspective.
http://epicureandealmaker.blogspot.com/2012/01/rape-of-persephone.html

Forget Greece, California is out of money (medium):
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/california-run-out-cash-one-month-controller-warns

Update comparing the CPI with the PCE (medium):
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/CPI-PCE-Comparison.php

News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

More earnings per share reports:

Reported Expected

UPS $1.28 $1.25
Eli Lilly .87 .80
Illinois Tool Works .90 .88
ExxonMobil 1.97 1.97
CR Bard 1.70 1.68
CH Robinson .67 .68



Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at Strategic Stock Investments is to help other investors build wealth and benefit from the investing lessons he learned the hard way.