The Morning Call-Monday Morning Chartology 4/16/12

The Market
Technical

Monday Morning Chartology

The short term uptrend has clearly been abrogated. I have drawn in the two leading candidates for the lower boundary of the new trading range. The red line is the 50 day moving average.





GLD is in a pretty clear trading range, working on overcoming the very short term down trend and the 50 day moving average (red line). Notice that it seems to be forming the right shoulder of a reverse head and shoulders pattern.




The VIX has broken its short term downtrend. I have drawn in the initial candidate for the upper boundary of a new short term trading range. As I noted previously, this is not a positive for stocks.





Mutual fund outflows continue (short):
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/04/stock-mutual-fund-outflows-increase/

Update on the ‘best stock market indicator ever’:
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/John-Carlucci-Best-Indicator-Ever-Update.php

Fundamental

Europe is still broken (medium):
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/europe-broken-again-sarkozy-and-lagarde-are-back-begging


Economics

This Week’s Data

March retail sales were up 0.8% versus expectations of up 0.3%; ex auto, sales were up 0.8% versus estimates of up 0.5%.

The April New York Fed manufacturing survey came in at 6.56 versus forecasts of 17.5.

Other

The number of workers quitting their jobs is going up (short):
http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2012/04/workers-quitting-jobs-is-highest-in.html

Cullen Roche on the likelihood and timing of a recession (medium):
http://pragcap.com/still-no-recession-on-the-horizon

Politics

Domestic

International

Monday morning humor (3 minute video):
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/friday-fun-financial-fatalism

Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at Strategic Stock Investments is to help other investors build wealth and benefit from the investing lessons he learned the hard way.