Friday, May 04, 2012

Morning Journal-Budget math from the Heritage Foundation


Economics

This Week’s Data


The April Institute for Supply Management’s nonmanufacturing index was reported at 53.5 versus expectations of 56.0.

April retail sales increases came one half of estimates.

April nonfarm payrolls were reported at 115,000 versus forecasts of 159,000; however, the prior two months were revised up. Counting the revisions, the number would have been flat. The unemployment rate was 8.1% versus expectations of 8.2%.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/05/april-employment-report-115000-jobs-81.html

Other

Update on the Pulse of Commerce index (short):
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Pulse-of-Commerce-Index.php

Another optimist on the economy (medium):
http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2012/05/still-no-sign-of-recession.html

A Fed smack down from David Einhorn (medium/long):
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mobileweb/david-einhorn/fed-interest-rates_b_1472509.html

And from Ron Paul (medium):
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/ron-paul-central-bankers-are-intellectually-bankrupt

Politics

Domestic


A review of the gentleman managing the executive branch (medium):
http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/298737/secretaries-gone-wild-victor-davis-hanson

The following four part series produced by the Heritage Foundation provides a close look at the federal budget. Each series is fairly short and laden with charts to illustrate key yet simple points. These are today’s must reads especially for those who are bullish on the economy

The math on spending:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/unabridged-and-illustrated-federal-budget-dummies-part-1-spending

The math on revenues:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/unabridged-and-illustrated-federal-budget-dummies-part-2-revenues

The math on deficits:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/unabridged-and-illustrated-federal-budget-dummies-part-3-debt-deficits

The math on entitlement spending:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/unabridged-and-illustrated-federal-budget-dummies-part-4-entitlements

International

Is Europe in a depression (medium):
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/05/is-europe-in-a-depression/

If not, will it soon be? (medium):
http://www.minyanville.com/special-features/random-thoughts/articles/todd-harrison-todd-harrison-minyanville-todd/5/3/2012/id/40769

Forget Europe says Hugh Hendry; worry about China (medium):
http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2012/05/02/hugh-hendry-forget-europe-and-the-us-the-next-crisis-will-be-in-china/#axzz1tlXyt9qA

12 predictions on China (medium):
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/michael-pettis-revisits-12-predictions-china

Letters from Abbottabad (OBL):
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/osamas-grand-plan-destroy-america-president-biden

Thoughts on Investing--New Rules of Money courtesy of Forbes

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News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

More quarterly earnings per share reports:

Reported Expected

CF Industries $5.54 $4.87



Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at Strategic Stock Investments is to help other investors build wealth and benefit from the investing lessons he learned the hard way.