Monday, August 20, 2012

The Morning Call + Monday Morning Chartology + The Greek precedent


The Market

Technical

Monday Morning Chartology


The very short term uptrend is clearly the moving force in the Market at the moment. The question is, will the S&P 1422 April trading high provide sufficient resistance to halt this upward move.




There is a lot going on technically if the GLD chart: (1) it remains well within its intermediate term trading range [purple lines], (2) it has been unable to breach the level of the last lower high [orange line], (3) it is building a very short term uptrend, which if it holds will ultimately place it in a developing pennant formation.




The VIX closed below the lower boundary of its intermediate term trading range for the eighth day and did so with sufficient authority that I have to confirm the break of this support level. That suggests that stock prices have further to go to the upside. Nonetheless, principally because of my fundamental bias, I am uneasy with this call. That said, price is truth.




Update on ‘the best stock Market indicator ever’ (short):
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/John-Carlucci-Best-Indicator-Ever-Update.php

Fundamental

The Greek precedent (medium and today’s must read):
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/aftermath-greek-blue-light-precedent-belize-demands-half-its-debt-or-else


Economics

This Week’s Data

Other


More thoughts on mistakes the Fed has made (medium):
http://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2012/08/17/laundering_away_a_chance_for_a_stable_economy_99827.html

Politics

Domestic

International


The price of soybeans and China (short):
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/growing-threat-soybean-inspired-social-unrest-china




Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at Strategic Stock Investments is to help other investors build wealth and benefit from the investing lessons he learned the hard way.