The Closing Bell--the 'full Draghi'

Next week I am taking a belated Labor Day week vacation. So no Morning Calls or Closing Bell. I will be back on line Monday 9/17. In the meantime, I will have my computer and if action is needed will be in touch via Subscriber Alerts.

Statistical Summary

Current Economic Forecast

2012

Real Growth in Gross Domestic Product (revised): +1.0- +2.0%
Inflation (revised): 2.5-3.5 %
Growth in Corporate Profits (revised): 5-10%

2013

Real Growth in Gross Domestic Product +1.0-+2.0
Inflation 2.0-2.5
Corporate Profits 0-7%

Morning Journal-Math is a bitch

Economics

This Week’s Data

The International Council of Shopping Centers reported weekly sales of major retailer down 0.4% versus the prior week but up 3.7% versus the comparable period a year ago; Redbook Research reported month to date retail chain store sales up 2.5% on a year over year basis.

Second quarter productivity was reported at +2.2% versus expectations of +1.9%; unit labor costs rose 1.5% versus estimates of up 1.4%.

Weekly jobless claims fell 9,000 versus forecasts of a decline of 4,000.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/09/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims.html

Other

August auto sales (short):
http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2012/09/auto-sales-reach-45-year-high-in-august.html

Chinese industrial production declines (chart):
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/chart-day-china-industrial-lack-production

Politics

Domestic

Are you better off---a look at the numbers (medium):
http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2012/09/04/Are-You-Better-Off-Here-Are-the-Numbers.aspx#page1

The math of the auto bailout (medium):
http://michellemalkin.com/2012/09/05/obamas-unamerican-auto-bailout/

The math of taxing millionaires and billionaires (medium):
http://townhall.com/columnists/thomassowell/2012/09/05/bait_and_switch_taxes

The math of too big to fail (medium):
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2012/09/05/rahm-emanuels-too-big-to-fail-lie/

More evidence of Wall Street/SEC inbreeding to the detriment of investors (long/medium):
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bloomberg-foia-documents-how-wall-street-made-muppet-sec-and-dodd-frank

Medicare’s unsustainability (short):
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/spot-unsustainable-entitlement


International War Against Radical Islam

USS Stennis will soon join two other carriers off Iranian coast (medium):
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/us-aircraft-carrier-stennis-now-en-route-join-enterprise-and-eisenhower-just-iranian-coast

Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at Strategic Stock Investments is to help other investors build wealth and benefit from the investing lessons he learned the hard way.

Morning Journal--the Fed and the business cycle

Economics

This Week’s Data

The August Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index came in at 49.6 versus expectations of 50.0 and July’s reading of 49.8.
http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2012/09/quick-updates.html

And (short):
http://www.capitalspectator.com/archives/2012/09/ism_index_manuf_1.html#more

July construction spending fell 0.9% versus estimates of +0.4%.

Weekly mortgage applications declined 2.5% while purchase applications were off 0.8%.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/09/mba-mortgage-applications-decrease-in.html

Other

The Fed and the business cycle (medium):
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/fed-responsible-great-financial-crisis

Weekly gasoline update (short):
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Gasoline-Update.php

Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at Strategic Stock Investments is to help other investors build wealth and benefit from the investing lessons he learned the hard way.

The Closing Bell-The presses will keep running full blast

Statistical Summary
Current Economic Forecast

2012

Real Growth in Gross Domestic Product (revised): +1.0- +2.0%
Inflation (revised): 2.5-3.5 %
Growth in Corporate Profits (revised): 5-10%

2013

Real Growth in Gross Domestic Product +1.0-+2.0
Inflation 2.0-2.5
Corporate Profits 0-7%

Current Market Forecast

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Current Trend (revised):
Short Term Trading Range 12022-13302
Intermediate Up Trend 12280-17280
Long Term Trading Range 7148-14180
Very LT Up Trend 4546-15148

2011 Year End Fair Value 10750-10770

2012 Year End Fair Value 11290-11310

The Closing Bell--Wait just a bit longer before getting jiggy

Statistical Summary

Current Economic Forecast

2012

Real Growth in Gross Domestic Product (revised): +1.0- +2.0%
Inflation (revised): 2.5-3.5 %
Growth in Corporate Profits (revised): 5-10%

2013

Real Growth in Gross Domestic Product +1.0-+2.0
Inflation 2.0-2.5
Corporate Profits 0-7%