"We're in trouble," Mr. Fabbri said. "We don't have sufficient economic plans at present to resolve the banking system or the financial crisis, and the stimulus package seems loaded for 2010." He added that the global nature of the downturn along with U.S. consumers' increased saving and lenders' tightened standards all stand in the way of a quick recovery.
Mr. Shapiro, who has been bearish on 2009 for months, sees unemployment hitting nearly 10% by year end and says he expects the economy to shrink through 2010. "We just think the enormity of the problem is not recognized by most people," he said. "If you look at the magnitude of this problem, the amount of debt relative to income, the credit and asset bubbles that have now reversed and it's only just started, why is it going to end two quarters from now?"
Subscribe to All American Investor via Email
By KELLY EVANS and PHIL IZZO
Economists in the latest Wall Street Journal forecasting survey still mostly project growth in U.S. gross domestic product by the third quarter, but they largely agree that a 2009 "second-half recovery" -- a widely shared scenario until now -- is looking much less likely.
Recent data showing just how sharply growth in the U.S. and elsewhere has declined in the final months of 2008 have cast a deepening shadow over 2009.
As recently as September, economists on average thought the U.S. would see annualized GDP growth of 1.2% in the first three months of this year; now, they see a 4.6% decline. Forecasts for the April-through-June period have seen a similar shift, from a 1.9% growth forecast to now a 1.5% decline, based on the 52 economists who participated in the Journal's February survey.
The average forecast is for growth in the third quarter at 0.7%, less than half the rate expected last fall. The fourth-quarter picture has also darkened, but just slightly, to growth of 1.9% from 2.1% seen in November. Only five economists see growth declining through the fourth quarter of 2009; but they insist the consensus outlook right now, which says the recession will end in August as GDP returns to growth, is far too optimistic.
"The consensus is usually late to the party," said Brian Fabbri, chief economist at BNP Paribas, noting he was one of the few who forecast the current recession two years ago. Now, he is one of the five who sees GDP declining through the end of 2009, along with Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at forecasting firm MFR Inc.; Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics; Swiss Re chief economist Kurt Karl; and retired Vanderbilt University professor J. Dewey Daane.
"We're in trouble," Mr. Fabbri said. "We don't have sufficient economic plans at present to resolve the banking system or the financial crisis, and the stimulus package seems loaded for 2010." He added that the global nature of the downturn along with U.S. consumers' increased saving and lenders' tightened standards all stand in the way of a quick recovery.
A boost to the economy from the government stimulus package has been a key feature of most forecasts for a rosy finish to 2009, but economists in the February survey largely expressed disappointment with how the package is shaping up. Comments on the package's influence this year say it is "too late," "provides little boost," is "trivial," "too big," "too small" and a "colossal waste of money." Nicholas Perna of Perna Associates cautioned, "We're in danger of repeating Japan's mistakes," referring to that nation's policy errors during its "lost decade" of the 1990s.
About the Survey
The Wall Street Journal surveys a group of 55 economists throughout the year. Broad surveys on more than 10 major economic indicators are conducted every month. Once a year, economists are ranked on how well their forecasts have fared. For prior installments of the surveys, see: WSJ.com/Economist.
Forecasters also were asked how many jobs they expect the U.S. to lose in 2009, and the average response called for a loss of nearly 183,000 a month. But when asked how that would look absent the stimulus package, they saw a loss on average of about 271,000 a month. Employment often lags behind changes in economic growth, and if the labor market behaves as it has during the past two recessions, job losses and unemployment will likely rise for many months after GDP returns to growth. On average, economists see unemployment hitting 8.8% by December, from its current 7.6%.
Mr. Shapiro, who has been bearish on 2009 for months, sees unemployment hitting nearly 10% by year end and says he expects the economy to shrink through 2010. "We just think the enormity of the problem is not recognized by most people," he said. "If you look at the magnitude of this problem, the amount of debt relative to income, the credit and asset bubbles that have now reversed and it's only just started, why is it going to end two quarters from now?"
"To say 'off we go' in the second half of the year, I think that begs incredulity, I just don't buy it," he said. "It's a global thing, too; trade volumes are just cratering and our exports are getting pounded. There's nowhere to hide."
video
Forecasters: 2009 Economic Rebound Unlikely
2:27
WSJ.com Editor Phil Izzo speaks to reporter Kelly Evans about the latest economic survey forecast. Analysts believe a recovery is unlikely until after 2009.
But others are standing by their forecasts for a second-half recovery. Joseph Carson, an economist with AllianceBernstein, says uncertainty about government policy is holding back risk-taking behavior -- for now. "Once we get clarity on the fiscal and financial packages, those two things together could end up jump-starting the economy," he said. He forecasts GDP will decline at a 3% rate in the current three months, then return to growth by April and surge to a 5.7% annualized pace in the closing months of the year. Other bulls include Brian Wesbury of First Trust Advisors and James Smith, a professor at Western Carolina University, who both see GDP growing at a 4% rate by year end.
Write to Kelly Evans at kelly.evans@wsj.com and Phil Izzo at philip.izzo@wsj.com
More on All American Investor
- Ray Dalio on the current state of affairs in the market
- 15 Great Stocks From the Great Depression
- Roubini Predicts U.S. Losses May Reach $3.6 Trillion
- Six Errors on the Path to the Financial Crisis
- Don't Get Swindled by a Foreclosure Rescue Company
- Option ARM--The Toxic Mortgage
- Debt Binge--The Perfect Financial Storm
No comments:
Post a Comment