Tuesday, January 17, 2012

The Morning Call-Tuesday Morning Chartology + The problem with demographics



The Market
Technical

Tuesday Morning Chartology


As you can see, there is little resistance between current levels and 1372. Also note the following support levels: (1) the neckline of the reverse head and shoulders pattern [12287, 1266], (2) their 200 day moving averages [11995, 1257], (3) the aforementioned lower boundary of their short term up trends [11977, 1238] and the old resistance/support level [11741, 1230].




GLD broke above the 200 day moving average. Then on the final day of its confirmation period under our time and distance discipline, it was sold down to close right on the average. In the interest of conservatism, I am extending our discipline for at least one more day.





The VIX remains firmly within a down trend--a positive for stocks.




This is an interesting study on Dow cycles--and not very optimistic (short):
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/Peter-Williams-120117-Dow-Historical-Perspective-Update.php

Fundamental

This chart on the rolling 10 year returns of the S&P gives some hope of better times:
http://www.quantmonitor.com/the-bigger-picture-sp-500-rolling-10-year-annual-returns/

The problem with demographics. This is short but today’s must read:
http://advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/dshort_11212.php

The latest from John Mauldin (long):
http://advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/millenium_011412.php



Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at Strategic Stock Investments is to help other investors build wealth and benefit from the investing lessons he learned the hard way.