Monday, July 09, 2012

Monday Morning Chartology + Nothing has changed but GLD is worrisome


The Market

Technical

Monday Morning Chartology


Last week, the S&P (1) eliminated 1338 as viable resistance, (2) replaced it with 1364 (3) and sustained the strength of the very short term down trend off the April high. This leaves the short term trading range (1266-1422) in tact with intermediate support at 1292 and resistance at 1364. The intermediate term uptrend (1254-1834) remains in place.




GLD continues to trade in an ever narrowing range, albeit quite volatily and ever closer to the bottom of its intermediate term trading range. A break of 148.20 would prompt a lessening of our Portfolios’ exposure.




Not encouraging (chart):
http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2012/7/6/gold-cant-catch-a-break.html

The VIX has broken its short term up trend and appears to developing a pronounced head and shoulders formation---both positive for stocks.





Update on ‘the best stock market indicator ever’:
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/John-Carlucci-Best-Indicator-Ever-Update.php

Fundamental

A quick review of last week’s economic data which was basically mixed (good factory orders, unsatisfactory jobs report) doesn’t suggest any need to alter or even question our current forecast. The turd in the punchbowl continues to be Europe; and while the eurocrats may be getting sore arms for all the self congratulatory back slapping, no amount of liquidity cures an insolvency problem.

Europe is not fixed (medium):
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/all-you-had-do-was-wait

And Spain just keeps getting worse (short):
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/spains-budget-deteriorates-so-much-it-gets-one-year-extension-eu-meet-deficit-targets




Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at Strategic Stock Investments is to help other investors build wealth and benefit from the investing lessons he learned the hard way.