The Morning Call + Adding to our GLD position

Today in my 70th birthday; friends and relatives will start arriving this afternoon for a weekend bash. So no Morning Call tomorrow or Closing Bell on Saturday. I am hoping to be sober enough to do Monday’s Morning Call.

The Market

Technical

The indices (DJIA 13172, S&P 1413) turned in a mixed performance (Dow down, S&P up), remaining (1) within their short term trading ranges (12022-13302, 1266-1422) and (2) their intermediate term uptrends (12223-17223, 1285-1865).

Volume was lower; breadth was weak. The VIX was up fractionally, continuing to trade in its short term downtrend. However, as I noted yesterday, I am still not convinced that its recent performance isn’t either a ‘fat tail’ to our time and distance discipline or that the VIX simply shifted the lower boundary of the trading range to a slightly lower level.

GLD was up strongly again, closing within its intermediate term trading range. It is the second day above the level of the last lower high; however, it also faces resistance from the short term downtrend. I want to take our Portfolios’ GLD position from 15% to 20%---which will be done by Buying 2 ½% today at the open and an additional 2 ½% when GLD breaks the upper boundary of that short term downtrend.

Morning Journal - Greece is nothing compared to Japan

Economics
This Week’s Data

The International Council of Shopping Centers reported weekly sales of major retailers fell 1.0% versus the prior week but rose 2.7% versus the comparable period a year ago; Redbook Research reported month to date retail chain store sales up 1.6% versus the similar timeframe a month ago and up 3.4% on a year over year basis.

The January Case Shiller home price index decline 0.5% versus expectations of a decrease of 0.4%.
http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2012/02/housing-prices-were-still-weak-late.html

The Conference Board’s February index of consumer confidence came in at 70.8 versus estimates of 64.9.
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Conference-Board-Consumer-Confidence-Index.php

The Richmond Fed’s February manufacturing index was reported a 20.0 versus expectations of 13.0.
http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2012/02/richmond-and-dallas-fed-report.html

Weekly mortgage applications fell 0.3% but purchase applications soared 8.2%.
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/02/misc-purchase-mortgage-applications.html

Fourth quarter GDP came in up 3.0%, slightly better than the 2.8% that was anticipated; the GDP deflator was up 0.9% versus expectations of up 0.4%.

Mohamed El Erian on Greece

@AllAmerinvest Stock Futures Down Early, Chart

U.S. stock-index futures are slipping after a meeting of euro-area finance chiefs finished without making progress on a debt-swap deal for Greece.

All American Investor

CNBC Bonus Bucks Answers for Tuesday, November 8, 2011

1. There has been mounting talk that the troubles in Greece will cause the Euro zone to break up. According JP Morgan Asset Management will this happen?

ANSWER: No

2. What US retailer said on Monday that it is scrapping plans for a chain of European superstores, and announced that it is buying out its British partner in a mobile phone initiative?

ANSWER: Best Buy

3. What luxurious holiday gift comes with a price tag of $5,000?

Answer: Johnnie Walker Private Scotch Tasting