The Morning Call--A top or not?

The Market

Technical

The indices (DJIA 13165, S&P 1402) snoozed through another day (Dow down, S&P up), closing (1) near the upper boundaries of their short term trading ranges [12022-13302, 1266-1422] and (2) well within their intermediate term uptrends [12131-17131, 1278-1858].

Volume was very low; breadth mixed. The VIX was down for a second day---both closes being just fractionally below the lower boundary of its intermediate term trading range (and neckline of the developing head and shoulders pattern). If this level is broken, it would be a plus for stocks. However, two closes in a row just $.12 below lower boundary may be pushing the notion of a ‘break’ a bit too far. For the moment, I am calling this the second day of a penetration but highly subject to an alternative interpretation.

GLD moved up again, finishing above the lower boundary of its intermediate term trading range but still not threatening a challenge to the series of lower highs.
http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2012/08/10/gold-poised-for-upside-breakout/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+wordpress%2FVYxj+%28Investment+Postcards+from+Cape+Town%29

Bottom line: stocks are in a technical ‘no buy’ zone. Even for investors far more sanguine about the near term Market outlook, it still makes no sense to risk new money this close to a major resistance level---better to wait a break and pay up fractionally than commit cash and have the Market roll over on you.

My task at these levels is to carefully watch those stocks that are either near their Sell Half Range or becoming technically overextended.

Dennis Gartman on gold

World Gold Demand

Record investment demand boosts global gold demand to an all time high in 2011

Global demand for gold in 2011 rose to 4,067.1 tonnes (t) worth an estimated US$205.5 billion - the first time that global demand has exceeded US$200 billion and the highest tonnage level since 1997, according to the World Gold Council’s Gold Demand Trends.

The main driver for this increase was the investment sector where annual demand was 1,640.7t up 5% on the previous record set in 2010 and with a value of US$82.9 billion. The pre-eminent markets for investment demand in 2011 were India, China and Europe.

All American Investor