Showing posts with label standard chartered. Show all posts
Showing posts with label standard chartered. Show all posts
Wednesday, August 15, 2012
Morning Journal-Goldman lowers odds of QEIII
Economics
This Week’s Data
The International Council of Shopping Centers reported weekly sales of major retailers down 0.3% versus last week but up 3.6% versus the comparable period a year ago; Redbook Research reported month to date retail chain store sales down 0.3% versus the similar timeframe in July but up 1.8% on a year over year basis.
June business inventories rose 0.1% versus expectations of an increase of 0.2%; business sales were unchanged.
Weekly mortgage applications fell 4.5% while purchase applications declined 2.0%.
Friday, August 10, 2012
The Morning Call--A top or not?
The Market
Technical
The indices (DJIA 13165, S&P 1402) snoozed through another day (Dow down, S&P up), closing (1) near the upper boundaries of their short term trading ranges [12022-13302, 1266-1422] and (2) well within their intermediate term uptrends [12131-17131, 1278-1858].
Volume was very low; breadth mixed. The VIX was down for a second day---both closes being just fractionally below the lower boundary of its intermediate term trading range (and neckline of the developing head and shoulders pattern). If this level is broken, it would be a plus for stocks. However, two closes in a row just $.12 below lower boundary may be pushing the notion of a ‘break’ a bit too far. For the moment, I am calling this the second day of a penetration but highly subject to an alternative interpretation.
GLD moved up again, finishing above the lower boundary of its intermediate term trading range but still not threatening a challenge to the series of lower highs.
http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2012/08/10/gold-poised-for-upside-breakout/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+wordpress%2FVYxj+%28Investment+Postcards+from+Cape+Town%29
Bottom line: stocks are in a technical ‘no buy’ zone. Even for investors far more sanguine about the near term Market outlook, it still makes no sense to risk new money this close to a major resistance level---better to wait a break and pay up fractionally than commit cash and have the Market roll over on you.
My task at these levels is to carefully watch those stocks that are either near their Sell Half Range or becoming technically overextended.
Technical
The indices (DJIA 13165, S&P 1402) snoozed through another day (Dow down, S&P up), closing (1) near the upper boundaries of their short term trading ranges [12022-13302, 1266-1422] and (2) well within their intermediate term uptrends [12131-17131, 1278-1858].
Volume was very low; breadth mixed. The VIX was down for a second day---both closes being just fractionally below the lower boundary of its intermediate term trading range (and neckline of the developing head and shoulders pattern). If this level is broken, it would be a plus for stocks. However, two closes in a row just $.12 below lower boundary may be pushing the notion of a ‘break’ a bit too far. For the moment, I am calling this the second day of a penetration but highly subject to an alternative interpretation.
GLD moved up again, finishing above the lower boundary of its intermediate term trading range but still not threatening a challenge to the series of lower highs.
http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2012/08/10/gold-poised-for-upside-breakout/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+wordpress%2FVYxj+%28Investment+Postcards+from+Cape+Town%29
Bottom line: stocks are in a technical ‘no buy’ zone. Even for investors far more sanguine about the near term Market outlook, it still makes no sense to risk new money this close to a major resistance level---better to wait a break and pay up fractionally than commit cash and have the Market roll over on you.
My task at these levels is to carefully watch those stocks that are either near their Sell Half Range or becoming technically overextended.
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