Rick Santelli--Draghi won't deliver

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The Morning Call-When not if

The Market
Technical

The indices (DJIA 13117, S&P 1394) drifted up in a quiet day, closing within their primary trends: (1) short term trading ranges [12022-13302, 1266-1422] and (2) intermediate term uptrends [12117-17117, 1275-1855].

Volume was light; breadth declined. The VIX was up fractionally, remaining near the lower boundary of its intermediate term trading range (and the neckline of a developing head and shoulders pattern).

GLD was up in more directionless trading. It continues to trade above the lower boundary of its intermediate term trading range.

Bottom line: stocks continue to have a bid under them; so I would expect that a challenge of the 13302, 1422 upper boundaries of the Averages short term trading ranges is likely a matter of ‘when’ not ‘if’. Buying stocks at these technical levels has historically not been a wise move; indeed, we may be given the opportunity to lighten some positions if any stock trades into its Sell Half Range or is clearly overextended technically.

The Morning Call + Subscriber Alert + Patience

The Market
Technical

The indices (DJIA 13008, S&P 1379) meandered lower yesterday, but remained within their primary trends (1) short term trading ranges [12022-13302, 1266-1422] and (2) intermediate term uptrends [12075-17075, 1273-1853].

Volume improved but breadth declined. The VIX rose and remains above the lower boundary of its intermediate term trading range and within the developing head and shoulders.

GLD fell, but continues to trade above the lower boundary of its intermediate term trading range. This decline comes off the level of the last in a string of lower highs; hence the trend of downward bias continues.

The Morning Call-Double the pleasure

The Market
Technical

The indices (DJIA 13073, S&P 1385) were basically flat yesterday, closing within their primary trends: (1) short term trading ranges [12022-13302, 1266-1422] and (2) the intermediate term uptrends [12075-17075, 1271-1851]. By holding recent gains, the 12904/1364 interim resistance level has been negated, leaving the short term trading range upper boundaries as the nearest resistance.

Volume was anemic; breadth deteriorated. The VIX sold off 8% but remains well above the lower boundary of its intermediate term trading range and the neckline of the developing head and shoulders pattern.

GLD was down fractionally, finishing above the lower boundary of its intermediate term trading range.

The Closing Bell--What will the Germans do?

Statistical Summary

Current Economic Forecast

2012

Real Growth in Gross Domestic Product (revised): +1.0- +2.0%
Inflation (revised): 2.5-3.5 %
Growth in Corporate Profits (revised): 5-10%

2013

Real Growth in Gross Domestic Product +1.0-+2.0
Inflation 2.0-2.5
Corporate Profits 0-7%

Current Market Forecast

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Current Trend (revised):
Short Term Trading Range 12022-13302
Intermediate Up Trend 12059-17059
Long Term Trading Range 7148-14180
Very LT Up Trend 4546-15148

2011 Year End Fair Value 10750-10770

2012 Year End Fair Value 11290-11310

Standard & Poor’s 500

Current Trend (revised):
Short Term Trading Range 1266-1422
Intermediate Term Up Trend 1269-1849
Long Term Trading Range 766-1575
Very LT Up Trend 651-2007

2011 Year End Fair Value 1320-1340

2012 Year End Fair Value 1390-1410

Percentage Cash in Our Portfolios

Dividend Growth Portfolio 30%
High Yield Portfolio 32%
Aggressive Growth Portfolio 33%

The Morning Call--Draghi's wet dream

The Market
Technical

Yesterday, the indices (DJIA 12887, S&P 1360) did their best impression of a Titan III moon shot but still remained well within their primary trends (1) short term trading ranges [12022-13302, 1266-1422] and (2) intermediate term uptrends [12057-17059], 1268-1848]. Within the short term trading ranges, additional resistance exists at 12904, 1364, which the Averages are now approaching. However, recall that they have unsuccessfully challenged these levels on three prior occasions. That, of course, doesn’t mean that the fourth time won’t be a charm, but it does clearly indicate a level at which investors are prepared to sell.

Volume was flat; breadth improved. The VIX declined, finishing above the lower boundary of its intermediate term trading range and still within a developing head and shoulders formation.

GLD rose, remaining above the lower boundary of its intermediate term trading range and still unable to break the long string of lower highs.