U.S. Net International Investment Position: End of First Quarter 2013, Year 2012, and Annual Revisions

Quarterly and Annual Statistics

In this release, BEA presents the U.S. international investment position statistics for the first quarter of 2013 along with historical revisions and detailed annual statistics for 2012, including changes in positions resulting from annual financial flows and valuation changes such as price, exchange-rate, and other changes.

Quarterly positions are revised for the first quarter of 2009 to the fourth quarter of 2012 and detailed annual statistics are revised for 2009-2012.

Quarterly position statistics are available for the fourth quarter of 2005 to the first quarter of 2013. They are presented as part of BEA's effort to provide more frequent and timely statistics on cross-border linkages to help users better assess U.S. vulnerability to external financial shocks in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. Quarterly statistics are made available every March, June, September, and December via BEA news releases.

Gross Domestic Product, 1 Decimal (GDP) 2013:Q1

16,004.5 Billions of Dollars



Gross domestic product (GDP), the featured measure of U.S. output, is the market value of the goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States. 

For more information, see the Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (NIPA) - (http://www.bea.gov/national/pdf/nipaguid.pdf)


Original content +Bob DeMarco , All American Investor

METROPOLITAN AREA EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT —APRIL 2013

Jobless rates were lower in April than a year earlier in 276 of the 372 metropolitan areas, higher in 78, and unchanged in 18.

Nonfarm payroll employment was up in 274 metropolitan areas over the year, down in 88, and unchanged in 10.

Read the full blown report

Original content +Bob DeMarco , All American Investor

EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- FEBRUARY 2013

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 236,000 in February, and the unemployment rate edged down to 7.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

Employment increased in professional and business services, construction, and health care.

All American Investor

REAL EARNINGS NOVEMBER 2012

All American Investor

Real average hourly earnings for all employees rose 0.5 percent from October to November, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

This change resulted from a 0.2 percent increase in average hourly earnings combined with a 0.3 percent decline in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U).

Real average weekly earnings increased 0.5 percent over the month due to the increase in real average hourly earnings combined with an unchanged average workweek. Since reaching a peak in June 2012, real average weekly earnings has fallen 0.8 percent.

Real average hourly earnings were unchanged, seasonally adjusted, from November 2011 to November 2012. The unchanged real average hourly earnings, combined with an unchanged average workweek, resulted in no change in real average weekly earnings over this period.

Read the full blown report -- Real Earnings

General Mills (GIS) 2012 Review

General Mills Inc., GIS, processes and markets such well known products as Cheerios, Wheaties, Total, Chex, Betty Crocker, Bisquick, Hamburger Helper, Yoplait and Progresso. 

The company has grown profits and dividends at a 7-10% pace over the last ten years earning a 20%+ return on equity. This performance should continue as a result of:

(1) an outstanding portfolio of fast growing brands

(2) a steady pipeline of new products which enhance sales and take market share,

(3) an aggressive cost cutting program,

(4) expansion into emerging markets which should account for 70% of food growth though 2012,

(5) acquisitions (latest: Yoplait Int’l, Parampara Foods [India], Yoki [Brazil])

(6) management is committed to enhancing shareholder value via increasing dividends and share buy backs.

Sun Hydraulics (SNHY) 2012 Review

Sun Hydraulics, SNHY,  designs, manufactures and markets valves and manifolds for hydraulic systems including electrical and nonelectrical actuated valves, machined manifolds and custom valve and manifold assemblies for use in construction agriculture, mining, industrial and fire and rescue equipment. 

The company has grown dividends and profits at a 10-18% pace over the past five years earning a 15-20% return on equity. SHNY’s business suffered dramatically in the 2009 recession; however, it has made a strong comeback which should continue as a result of:

(1) growth in global industrial capital expenditures,

(2) price increases,

(3) exposure to Germany, Korea, China and India.

Tiffany (TIF) 2012 Review

Tiffany & Co (TIF) is an internationally known retailer, designer and manufacturer of fine jewelry, silverware, china, crystal and gift items.

The company has grown profits and dividends at a 10-20% rate over the last 10 years earning a 14-19% return on equity. 2009 was a difficult year for TIF, made especially so by management’s hesitancy to discount and the decline in spending by foreign tourists. However, 2010 rebounded strongly and profits have continued to grow as a result of:

(1) rising sales made possible by rising capital expenditures in its distribution, manufacturing and diamond sourcing process,

(2) increased penetration in international markets,

(3) expansion in new store openings,

(4) a growing customer base resulting from opening a line of new smaller stores with lower priced, higher margin products,

(5) stock buyback program.

Automatic Data Processing (ADP) 2012 Review

Automatic Data Processing (ADP) provides payroll and tax filing services, brokerage services, comprehensive human resource services and financial services to auto and truck dealerships.

The company has grown profits and dividends 7-14% over the last 10 years and has earned an 18-20% return on equity. While the 2008-2009 recession impacted ADP somewhat, it did very well relative to other companies. Long term, the company should continue to prosper based:

(1) the economic recovery has led to an increase in both customers and the number of checks processed,

(2) the contribution from the recent acquisitions [8 in the last year],

(3) a dedicated effort to technological upgrades,

(4) its stock buy back program.

Public Pension Assets Increase More Than $257 Billion

Public Pension Assets Increase More Than $257 Billion for State and Local Public-Employee Retirement Systems in 2010

All American Investor

The nation’s state and local public-employee retirement systems had $2.7 trillion in total cash and investment holdings in 2010, a $257.2 billion or 10.6 percent increase from $2.4 trillion in 2009, according to new statistics from the U.S. Census Bureau.

This follows a $722.2 billion loss the previous year.

These statistics come from the 2010 Annual Survey of Public-Employee Retirement Systems, which provides an annual look at the financial activity and membership information of the nation’s state and local public-employee retirement systems, including revenues, expenditures, investment holdings, and number of retirement systems and beneficiaries

Occidental Petroleum (OXY)

Occidental Petroleum (OXY) produces and markets crude oil and natural gas, manufactures industrial chemicals, plastics and fertilizer and transports natural gas through pipelines.

The company has grown profits at a 24% over the last ten years. Dividends grew at a lesser rate (10%) though they are expected to rise to an 11% pace. OXY’s return on equity has been in the 11-20% range. The company should continue to grow dividends and earnings as a result of:

(1) rising production from new properties,

(2) the company’s expertise in enhanced oil recovery techniques,

(3) acquisitions,

(4) resumption of operations in Libya,

(5) improving profit margins,

(6) stock buyback program.

Xilinx (XLNX) 2012 Review

Xilinx designs, develops and markets complementary metal-oxide-silicon programmable logic devices, including field programmable gate arrays and complex programmable logic devices and markets hardware devices and develops software design tools for programmable electronic technologies.

Steve Cook

The company has grown profits at a 10% pace over the last 10 years and has raised its dividend per share from $.20 in 2004 to $.64 in 2010. Return on equity has come in between 16% and 20% in the last five years. XLNX experienced a hiccup in 2009 due to the recession but recovered in 2010 year and should continue to make progress as a result of:

(1) benefiting from the global trend of programmable logic devices replacing application-specific integrated circuits,

(2) improvement in demand from its two principal markets,

(3) new products expected to open new markets,

Family Dollar Stores (FDO) 2012 Review

Family Dollar Stores operates a chain of 6,785 general retail discount merchandise stores in 44 states. It provides competitively priced goods to low and middle income consumers, including home products, apparel and accessories, seasonal goods and electronics. 

FDO has grown profits and dividends at an 11% pace over the last 10 years earning a 15-20% return on equity. The company successfully navigated its way through the recent recession and should continue to improve earnings as a result of:

(1) its strategy to upgrade its merchandising, marketing and store operations,

(2) aggressive price management and cost containment programs,

Altera Corp (ALTR) 2012 Review

Altera Corp.(ALTR) is a global leader in the design and manufacture of high density programmable logic devices (PLD) and associated computer aided engineering logic development tools. 

Its products are utilized in the telecommunications, data communications, computers and industrial applications. The company has grown profits at an 8% pace over the last 10 years and its dividend at a 13% rate since its initiation in 2007; in addition, it has earned a 20-25% return on equity. ALTR experienced an earnings decline in 2009 but rebounded sharply in 2010 and should continue to grow as a result of:

(1) ALTR has technological advantage over its principal PLD rival via a newly developed, high performance application specific integrated circuit,

(2) its new generation of products carry higher margins and should add to earnings growth as they become a larger portion of the sales mix,

(3) the rollout of the third generation mobile networks in Asia will add significantly to profit expansion.

Erie Indemnity (ERIE) 2012 Reveiw

Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) offers property casualty insurance including automobile, homeowners and commercial multi peril, automobile and worker’s compensation insurance.

Over the last ten years, the company has grown profits at 2% rate but dividends at a 14% rate generating a 12-20% return on equity. 2008 and 2009 were difficult for ERIE, but earnings bounced back in 2010 and should continue to improve this year as a result of:

(1) rising management fees,

(2) stringent cost controls,

Ross Stores (ROST) 2012 Review

Ross Stores (ROST) operates a chain of off price retail stores offering high quality, in season name brand and designer apparel, shoes, cosmetics, accessories and home merchandise at discounts of 20-60% below mainstream retailers.

The company has grown profits and dividends at a 15-20% annual rate over the past 10 years, earning a 25%+ return on equity. While current retail environment experienced difficulties in the recent recession, ROST’s off price business model continued to produce above average results because:

Sonoco Products (SON) 2012 Review

Sonoco Products Co (SON) is a leading producer of paper-based tubes and cores, flexible packaging, rigid plastic containers, cylinder paperboard, composite cans, protective partitions, wire and cable reels and point of purchase displays.

The company has grown profits and dividends at a 5-6% pace over the last five years earning a 13-15% return on equity. The company should continue to grow as a result of:

(1) new product innovation. SON has raised the amount of capital spending dedicated to new product opportunities,

(2) increased focus of consumer oriented businesses,

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) 2012 Review

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is a major developer, manufacturer and marketer of health care products. 

Its major divisions are: Consumer (baby care, oral care, non-prescription drugs, wound care and skin care), Medical Devices (electrophysiology, circulatory disease management and orthopedic joint reconstruction) and Pharmaceuticals (contraceptives, psychiatric, anti-infective, gastrointestinal and dermatological).

Over the past ten years, the company has earned a 20-30% return on equity while growing its earnings and dividend at a 12-14% annual rate. While profit and dividend growth may slow somewhat short term, its strong, well diversified product line should continue to grow rapidly longer term as a result of:

Canon (CAJ) 2011 Review

Canon (CAJ)  is one of the world’s leading designers, manufacturers and marketers of office equipment (office, personal and full color copying machines, office and network digital multifunction devices, laser and inkjet printers, scanners), cameras (digital and film cameras, digital video camcorders and camera accessories) and optical products (semiconductor production equipment, broadcasting lenses, medical equipment and electronic components). 

The company has grown profits and dividends at a 10-20% rate over the last ten years earning a 9-15% return on equity. The company suffered from weak demand and competitive pricing pressures in the 2009 slowdown, but management’s ongoing effort to achieve the number one position in each of its core businesses should lead to profit improve as a result of:

(1) rising demand for network digital multifunctional devices as well as its consumer products,

(2) aggressive cost cutting,

(3) expansion into emerging markets,

Negatives:

(1) the persistent rise of the yen negatively impact profits,

(2) the company is still recovering form the supply chain disruptions related to the Japanese tsunami.

Canon is rated A by Value Line, has a solid balance sheet (1% debt), and its stock yields 2.9%.

Statistical Summary

	Stock Yield	Dividend Growth Rate	Payout Ratio	# Increases Since 2001
CAJ	2.9%	5%	45%	10
IND	1.3	5	30	NA

	Debt/Equity	ROE	EPS Down Since 2001	Net Margin	Value Line Rating
CAJ	1%	11%	3	8%	A
IND	18	6	NA	3	NA

Chart

Note: CAJ stock made good initial progress off its March 2009 low though it took considerable time for it to surpass the down trend off its June 2007 high (red line) and the November 2008 trading high (green line).

The stock is in a long term trading range (straight blue line is the lower boundary). In early 2011, the stock broke the uptrend off the March 2009 low and re-set to an intermediate term trading range (purple lines). The wiggly blue lines are Bollinger Bands.

The Dividend Growth Portfolio doesn’t own a position in CAJ as a result of a recent trading sale ($42)--not one of my best trading decisions. The stock would be bought back on a trading basis at $37. The lower boundary of its Sell Half Range is $57.





http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=CAJ

HollyFrontier (HFC) 2011 Review

HollyFrontier Corp (HFC), which is the result of a merger of Holly Corp and Frontier Oil in July 2011, is one of the largest independent petroleum refiners in the US producing gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, asphalt and specialty lubricant products.

Consolidated historical figures are not yet available; however, earnings per share are expected to grow from $5.50 this year to $5.75 in 2012 while the dividend per share should increase from $.33 to $.38. Return on equity in 2011 will be roughly 60%. HFC should benefit from: