All American Investor

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Friday, November 13, 2009

U.S. IMPORT AND EXPORT PRICE INDEXES – OCTOBER 2009

The U.S. Import Price Index rose 0.7 percent in October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, led by a 1.8 percent increase in fuel prices.

The rise followed a 0.2 percent increase in September. U.S. export prices advanced 0.3 percent in October after decreasing 0.2 percent the previous month.

All Imports: The increase in U.S. imports in October continued the recent upward trend for the index.

Import prices have risen in seven of the past eight months and were up 8.1 percent over that period. Despite the recent increases, import prices declined 5.7 percent for the year ended in October driven by a 12.8 percent drop in prices between October 2008 and January 2009.

Fuel Imports: Prices for import fuel advanced 1.8 percent in October after a 1.5 percent decline the previous month. A 24.1 percent increase in natural gas prices led the overall advance in October, while petroleum prices were also a contributing factor, advancing 0.9 percent.

However, the price indexes for natural gas and petroleum both declined over the past year, falling 46.4 percent and 12.2 percent, respectively.

All Imports Excluding Fuel: Nonfuel import prices rose 0.4 percent in October as higher prices for industrial supplies and materials, finished goods, and foods, feeds, and beverages all contributed to the advance. Prices for nonfuel imports rose between 0.4 percent and 0.5 percent in each of the past three months, the largest monthly advances since a 0.6 percent increase in July 2008.

The index declined 2.9 percent over the past 12 months as sharp decreases at the end of 2008 more than offset the recent rises.

Source of information BLS

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Original content Bob DeMarco, All American Investor

Friday, October 02, 2009

Real Unemployment Jumps to 17.5 Percent (Explanation)

The U-6 (Table A-12: Alternative measures of labor under utilization) measures the real rate of unemployment in the United States.

Most news organizations report the more popular U.S. Department of Labor: Civilian Unemployment Rate. If you read the report today you learned that unemployment is 10.2 percent for September.

You would also have noticed the real rate of unemployment is 17.5 percent versus 11.1 percent in September 2008.

To view this report and the numbers go here.

Real Unemployment U-6 -- 17.5%

There are other groups of unemployed that are not counted in the more popular employment report. The Bureau of Labor Statistics U-6 report includes the unemployed, and those that have thrown in the towel.

The U-6 report includes:

Total unemployed
plus all marginally attached workers
plus total employed part time for economic reasons

In other words,

marginally attached workers are persons who currently are neither working nor looking for work, but indicate that they want and are available for a job, and have looked for work sometime in the recent past.
Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not looking currently for a job.

The U-6 report counts everyone that is unemployed--officially and unofficially.
Here are some other statistics that you might find disconcerting.

About 2.4 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force in October,
reflecting an increase of 736,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not sea-
sonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and
were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months.
They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in
the 4 weeks preceding the survey.
Among the marginally attached, there were 808,000 discouraged workers in October,
up from 484,000 a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Dis-
couraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe
no jobs are available for them. The other 1.6 million persons marginally attached
to the labor force in October had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding
the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities.
The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm
payrolls was unchanged at 33.0 hours in October. The manufacturing workweek rose
by 0.1 hour to 40.0 hours, and factory overtime increased by 0.2 hour over the
month.
The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) was
little changed over the month at 5.6 million. In October, 35.6 percent of
unemployed persons were jobless for 27 weeks or more.
The civilian labor force participation rate was little changed over the month
at 65.1 percent. The employment-population ratio continued to decline in
October, falling to 58.5 percent.

All of the statistics in this article were sourced from the Department of Labor--Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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Original content by Bob DeMarco, All American Investor

The Unemployment Rate 9.8 Percent, Nonfarm Payroll Employment Continued to Decline

Nonfarm payroll employment continued to decline in September (-263,000), and the unemployment rate (9.8 percent) continued to trend up, the U.S. Bureau of
Labor Statistics reported today. The largest job losses were in construction,
manufacturing, retail trade, and government.

Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the number of unemployed
persons has increased by 7.6 million to 15.1 million, and the unemployment
rate has doubled to 9.8 percent.

Household Survey Data

Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the number of unemployed
persons has increased by 7.6 million to 15.1 million, and the unemployment
rate has doubled to 9.8 percent. (See table A-1.)

Unemployment rates for the major worker groups--adult men (10.3 percent),
adult women (7.8 percent), teenagers (25.9 percent), whites (9.0 percent),
blacks (15.4 percent), and Hispanics (12.7 percent)--showed little change
in September. The unemployment rate for Asians was 7.4 percent, not season-
ally adjusted. The rates for all major worker groups are much higher than
at the start of the recession. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

Among the unemployed, the number of job losers and persons who completed
temporary jobs rose by 603,000 to 10.4 million in September. The number of
long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) rose by 450,000
to 5.4 million. In September, 35.6 percent of unemployed persons were job-
less for 27 weeks or more. (See tables A-8 and A-9.)

The civilian labor force participation rate declined by 0.3 percentage point
in September to 65.2 percent. The employment-population ratio, at 58.8 per-
cent, also declined over the month and has decreased by 3.9 percentage points
since the recession began in December 2007. (See table A-1.)

In September, the number of persons working part time for economic reasons
(sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was little changed
at 9.2 million. The number of such workers rose sharply throughout most of
the fall and winter but has been little changed since March. (See table A-5.)

About 2.2 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force in
September, an increase of 615,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not sea-
sonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and
were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12
months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for
work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See table A-13.)

Among the marginally attached, there were 706,000 discouraged workers in
September, up by 239,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally
adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work
because they believe no jobs are available for them. The other 1.5 million
persons marginally attached to the labor force in September had not searched
for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school
attendance or family responsibilities.

Establishment Survey Data

Total nonfarm payroll employment declined by 263,000 in September. From May
through September, job losses averaged 307,000 per month, compared with los-
ses averaging 645,000 per month from November 2008 to April. Since the start
of the recession in December 2007, payroll employment has fallen by 7.2 mil-
lion. (See table B-1.)

In September, construction employment declined by 64,000. Monthly job los-
ses averaged 66,000 from May through September, compared with an average of
117,000 per month from November to April. September job cuts were concen-
trated in the industry's nonresidential components (-39,000) and in heavy
construction (-12,000). Since December 2007, employment in construction has
fallen by 1.5 million.

Employment in manufacturing fell by 51,000 in September. Over the past 3
months, job losses have averaged 53,000 per month, compared with an average
monthly loss of 161,000 from October to June. Employment in manufacturing
has contracted by 2.1 million since the onset of the recession.

In the service-providing sector, the number of jobs in retail trade fell by
39,000 in September. From April through September, retail employment has
fallen by an average of 29,000 per month, compared with an average monthly
loss of 68,000 for the prior 6-month period.

Government employment was down by 53,000 in September, with the largest
decline occurring in the non-education component of local government
(-24,000).

Employment in health care continued to increase in September (19,000), with
the largest gain occurring in ambulatory health care services (15,000).
Health care has added 559,000 jobs since the beginning of the recession,
although the average monthly job gain thus far in 2009 (22,000) is down from
the average monthly gain during 2008 (30,000).

Employment in transportation and warehousing continued to trend down in
September. The number of jobs in financial activities, professional and
business services, leisure and hospitality, and information showed little
or no change over the month.

In September, the average workweek for production and nonsupervisory workers
on private nonfarm payrolls edged down by 0.1 hour to 33.0 hours. Both the
manufacturing workweek and factory overtime decreased by 0.1 hour over the
month, to 39.8 and 2.8 hours, respectively. (See table B-2.)

In September, average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory
workers on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 1 cent, or 0.1 percent, to
$18.67. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.5
percent, while average weekly earnings have risen by only 0.7 percent due
to declines in the average workweek. (See table B-3.)

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised from
-276,000 to -304,000, and the change for August was revised from -216,000
to -201,000.

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Friday, June 05, 2009

Real Unemployment Jumps to 16.4 Percent (Graph)

Not many people are aware of the U-6 report that is issued by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Most news organizations report the more popular U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics--Civilian Unemployment Rate. If you read this report today then you learned that unemployment jumped to 9.4 percent.

Real Unemployment U-6 -- 16.4%

Source Bureau of Labor Statistics

There is another category of unemployed that are not counted in that report. They are described in the U-6 report this way,

The U-6 report counts everyone that is unemployed. To view the report go here.

U-6

Total unemployed
plus all marginally attached workers
plus total employed part time for economic reasons
as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers

The number reported today for this series is 16.4% .

This paints a very ugly picture for the future.

Bob DeMarco is a citizen journalist and twenty year Wall Street veteran. Bob has written more than 500 articles with more than 11,000 links to his work on the Internet. Content from All American Investor has been syndicated on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Pluck, Blog Critics, and a growing list of newspaper websites. Bob is actively seeking syndication and writing assignments.

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THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: MAY 2009

Nonfarm payroll employment fell by 345,000 in May, about half the
average monthly decline for the prior 6 months, the Bureau of Labor
Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The unem-
ployment rate continued to rise, increasing from 8.9 to 9.4 percent.
Steep job losses continued in manufacturing, while declines moderated
in construction and several service-providing industries.

Unemployment (Household Survey Data)

The number of unemployed persons increased by 787,000 to 14.5 million
in May, and the unemployment rate rose to 9.4 percent. Since the start
of the recession in December 2007, the number of unemployed persons has
risen by 7.0 million, and the unemployment rate has grown by 4.5 percent-
age points. (See table A-1.)

Unemployment rates rose in May for adult men (9.8 percent), adult
women (7.5 percent), whites (8.6 percent), and Hispanics (12.7 percent).
The jobless rates for teenagers (22.7 percent) and blacks (14.9 percent)
were little changed over the month. The unemployment rate for Asians was
6.7 percent in May, not seasonally adjusted, up from 3.8 percent a year
earlier. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

Among the unemployed, the number of job losers and persons who completed
temporary jobs rose by 732,000 in May to 9.5 million. This group has in-
creased by 5.8 million since the start of the recession. (See table A-8.)

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more)
increased by 268,000 over the month to 3.9 million and has tripled since
the start of the recession.

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Friday, March 27, 2009

Vehicle Sales Plunge--Ugly Chart

Personal Income and Expenditures (Numbers and Charts)

Personal Consumption Expenditures tick up. A positive factor for first Quarter GDP.

Personal income

decreased $29.1 billion, or 0.2 percent
disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $10.5 billion, or 0.1 percent

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE)

increased $17.2 billion, or 0.2 percent. In January, personal
income increased $20.5 billion, or 0.2 percent
DPI increased $164.6 billion, or 1.6 percent
PCE increased $94.8 billion, or 1.0 percent, based on revised estimates.

Real disposable income

decreased 0.4 percent in February, in contrast to an increase of 1.3 percent in January.

Real PCE

decreased 0.2 percent, in contrast to an increase of 0.7 percent.
The price index for PCE increased 0.3 percent, the same increase as in January.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (more details and pres release)

Disposable Personal Income ticks up.

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Tuesday, March 17, 2009

The Real Picture on Housing Starts--Chart

They say a picture is worth a thousand words. You can decide for yourself.

HOUSING STARTS

Source: ST. Louis Federal Reserve, Census Bureau

Bold Endeavors: How Our Government Built America, and Why It Must Rebuild Now

Saturday, March 14, 2009

Employment Cost Index (Chart)

The Employment Cost Index (ECI) measures whether employment costs are rising or falling. This is a vital measure of inflation/deflation of wages and employer-paid benefits. This is also a key component in the overall measure of future inflation. A rising indicator is worrisome, a falling indicator means labor cost are being contained.

As you can see from the chart below, labor costs are dropping rather dramatically.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor

Bold Endeavors: How Our Government Built America, and Why It Must Rebuild Now