Showing posts with label real. Show all posts

Thursday, May 20, 2010

Real Retail and Food Services Sales (Chart)

Deflated Using the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (1982-84=100)

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Real Retail and Food Services Sales Still Dropping (Graph)

This should be disconcerting to investors. Could be an indication of storm clouds on the horizon.

Kindle: Amazon's 6"

Wireless Reading Device

Original content Bob DeMarco, All American Investor

Friday, November 06, 2009

Real Unemployment Jumps to 17.5 Percent (Explanation)

The U-6 (Table A-12: Alternative measures of labor under utilization) measures the real rate of unemployment in the United States.

Most news organizations report the more popular U.S. Department of Labor: Civilian Unemployment Rate. If you read the report today you learned that unemployment is 10.2 percent for September.

You would also have noticed the real rate of unemployment is 17.5 percent versus 11.1 percent in September 2008.

Real Unemployment U-6 -- 17.5%

There are other groups of unemployed that are not counted in the more popular employment report. The Bureau of Labor Statistics U-6 report includes the unemployed, and those that have thrown in the towel.

The U-6 report includes:

Total unemployed
plus all marginally attached workers
plus total employed part time for economic reasons

In other words,

marginally attached workers are persons who currently are neither working nor looking for work, but indicate that they want and are available for a job, and have looked for work sometime in the recent past.
Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not looking currently for a job.

The U-6 report counts everyone that is unemployed--officially and unofficially.
Here are some other statistics that you might find disconcerting.

About 2.4 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force in October,
reflecting an increase of 736,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not sea-
sonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and
were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months.
They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in
the 4 weeks preceding the survey.
Among the marginally attached, there were 808,000 discouraged workers in October,
up from 484,000 a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Dis-
couraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe
no jobs are available for them. The other 1.6 million persons marginally attached
to the labor force in October had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding
the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities.
The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm
payrolls was unchanged at 33.0 hours in October. The manufacturing workweek rose
by 0.1 hour to 40.0 hours, and factory overtime increased by 0.2 hour over the
month.
The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) was
little changed over the month at 5.6 million. In October, 35.6 percent of
unemployed persons were jobless for 27 weeks or more.
The civilian labor force participation rate was little changed over the month
at 65.1 percent. The employment-population ratio continued to decline in
October, falling to 58.5 percent.

To view this report and the numbers go here.

All of the statistics in this article were sourced from the Department of Labor--Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Kindle 2: Amazon's New Wireless Reading Device

Original content by Bob DeMarco, All American Investor

Friday, October 02, 2009

Real Unemployment Jumps to 17.5 Percent (Explanation)

You would also have noticed the real rate of unemployment is 17.5 percent versus 11.1 percent in September 2008.

To view this report and the numbers go here.

Real Unemployment U-6 -- 17.5%

There are other groups of unemployed that are not counted in the more popular employment report. The Bureau of Labor Statistics U-6 report includes the unemployed, and those that have thrown in the towel.

The U-6 report includes:

Total unemployed
plus all marginally attached workers
plus total employed part time for economic reasons

In other words,

marginally attached workers are persons who currently are neither working nor looking for work, but indicate that they want and are available for a job, and have looked for work sometime in the recent past.
Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not looking currently for a job.

The U-6 report counts everyone that is unemployed--officially and unofficially.
Here are some other statistics that you might find disconcerting.

About 2.4 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force in October,
reflecting an increase of 736,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not sea-
sonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and
were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months.
They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in
the 4 weeks preceding the survey.
Among the marginally attached, there were 808,000 discouraged workers in October,
up from 484,000 a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Dis-
couraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe
no jobs are available for them. The other 1.6 million persons marginally attached
to the labor force in October had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding
the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities.
The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm
payrolls was unchanged at 33.0 hours in October. The manufacturing workweek rose
by 0.1 hour to 40.0 hours, and factory overtime increased by 0.2 hour over the
month.
The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) was
little changed over the month at 5.6 million. In October, 35.6 percent of
unemployed persons were jobless for 27 weeks or more.
The civilian labor force participation rate was little changed over the month
at 65.1 percent. The employment-population ratio continued to decline in
October, falling to 58.5 percent.

All of the statistics in this article were sourced from the Department of Labor--Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Kindle 2: Amazon's New Wireless Reading Device

Original content by Bob DeMarco, All American Investor

Friday, August 07, 2009

Real Unemployment 16.8 Percent

Among the marginally attached, there were 796,000 discouraged workers in July, up by 335,000 over the past 12 months. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.)

Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them.

Not many people are aware of the U-6 report that is issued by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Most news organizations report the more popular Bureau of Labor Statistics--Civilian Unemployment Rate. If you read this report today then you learned that unemployment was 9.4 percent.

Real Unemployment U-6 -- 16.8%

There is another category of unemployed that are not counted in that report. They are described in the U-6 report this way,

The U-6 report counts everyone that is unemployed. To view the report go here.

U-6

Total unemployed
plus all marginally attached workers
plus total employed part time for economic reasons
as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers

The number reported today for this series is 16.8% .

Not a very pretty picture if you fall in these categories.

Kindle: Amazon's 6" Wireless Reading Device

Saturday, August 01, 2009

Real National Defense Gross Investment (Chart)

Real National Defense Gross Investment, Quarterly, Billions of Chained 2000 Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate.

FYI.

Kindle: Amazon's 6"

Wireless Reading Device

Tuesday, July 07, 2009

U.S. office vacancy hits 15.9 percent

Tip of the hat to our reader, Trader Kev.

U.S. office vacancy hits 15.9 percent in Q2U.S.
office rent falls 2.7 percent in Q2.

US office market continues to spiral down--report

By Ilaina Jonas

NEW YORK, July 7 (Reuters) - The U.S. office market vacancy rate reached 15.9 percent in the second quarter, its highest in four years and rent fell by the largest amount in more than seven as demand from companies and other office renters remained weak, real estate research firm Reis said Inc.

"It's bad," Reis director of research Victor Calanog said. "It's decaying and getting worse. Given the depth and magnitude of the recession, you can argue that we are facing a storm of epic proportions and we're only at the beginning.

The weak demand helped push up the average weighted U.S. office vacancy rate 0.70 percentage points during the quarter and 2.7 percentage points compared with a year ago, according to the report released on Tuesday.

Asking rent during the quarter fell 1.4 percent to $28.43 per square foot. Factoring in rent-free months and improvement costs to landlords, effective rent -- the net amount of cash landlords take in -- fell 2.7 percent in the quarter to $23.42 per square foot. The second-quarter drop was more severe than the first quarter's 2.3 percent, dampening hopes the office market is bottoming out, Reis said.

Year over year, rent was down 6.7 percent, the largest one- quarter decline since the first quarter 2002.

"This is really only the third quarter that we've experienced negative effective rent growth," Calanog said. "Last time, the office sector had four years of negative effective rent growth."

Although the sector has experienced downturns before, the current one may be lethal for lenders and investors who bought property during the boom years of 2005 from 2007. Many of them based the price and the loan on the belief that rents would continue to post strong growth and occupancy increases.

"It's like taking on a lot of debt as an individual and now suddenly earning 10 percent 20 percent 30 percent less," he said.

The dwindling cash flow resulting from higher vacancy and lower rent weakens the ability to repay financing and pushes a borrower closer to defaulting on a loan.

The weak second-quarter performance prompted Reis to maintain its February forecast calling for the U.S. office vacancy rate to top out at 18.2 percent in 2010 and for rent to continue to fall through 2011. It also sees the commercial real estate default rate to reach 4.2 percent by the end of the year and peak at 5.2 percent in 2011.

The U.S. vacancy rate was at 12.5 percent in the third quarter of 2007, but has since risen 3.4 percentage points, Reis said.

Of the 79 markets that Reis tracks, vacancy rose in 65 and effective rent fell in 72, indicating the weakness is widespread.

Vacancy in the New York area, which includes all the New York City boroughs except Staten Island, rose 1.2 percentage points to 10.8 percent, the highest since 1996, and effective rent slid 5.2 percent

"As far as we can tell for New York, the next two years will be murder," Calanog said.

Boston and Orange County and San Jose California saw rent fall more than 5 percent.

Those results do not bode well for office landlords Brookfield Properties Corp (BPO.TO: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), Vornado Realty Trust (VNO.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), Boston Properties Inc (BXP.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), SL Green Realty Corp (SLG.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and Maguire Properties Inc (MPG.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz).

About 20 million square feet of office space came on the market than was rented during the quarter, slightly less than the 25.2 million square feet in the prior quarter.

Year-to-date, a net of 45.2 million more square feet of space put onto the market than was rented, on track with Reis' earlier project of about 67.6 million square feet 2009. If the forecast holds true, 2009 will be the worst year for net absorption of office space since Reis began tracking it in 1980. (Reporting by Ilaina Jonas; editing by Andre Grenon)

Bob DeMarco is a citizen journalist and twenty year Wall Street veteran. Bob has written more than 700 articles with more than 18,000 links to his work on the Internet. Content from All American Investor has been syndicated on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Pluck, Blog Critics, and a growing list of newspaper websites. Bob is actively seeking syndication and writing assignments.

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Kindle: Amazon's 6"

Wireless Reading Device

Thursday, July 02, 2009

Real Unemployment Jumps to 16.8 Percent (Statistics, Graph)

If you read Table 12 in the Bureau of Labor Statistics report you learned the real unemployment rate is 16.8 percent, not 9.5 percent.

Few people are familiar with the U-6 report that is issued by the United States Department of Labor-- Bureau of Labor Statistics. The U-6 (Table A-12: Alternative measures of labor under utilization) measures the real rate of unemployment in the United States.

Most news organizations report the more popular U.S. Department of Labor: Civilian Unemployment Rate. If you read the report today you learned that unemployment is 9.5 percent for June.

If you read the U-6 you learned the real rate of unemployment is 16.8 percent versus 10.3 percent in June 2008. To view this report and the numbers go here.

Real Unemployment U-6 -- 16.8%

There are other groups of unemployed that are not counted in the more popular employment report. The Bureau of Labor Statistics U-6 report includes the unemployed, and those that have thrown in the towel.

The U-6 report includes:

Total unemployed
plus all marginally attached workers
plus total employed part time for economic reasons

In other words,

marginally attached workers are persons who currently are neither working nor looking for work, but indicate that they want and are available for a job, and have looked for work sometime in the recent past.
Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not looking currently for a job.

The U-6 report counts everyone that is unemployed--officially and unofficially.

Here are some other statistics that you might find disconcerting.

About 2.2 million persons (not seasonally adjusted) were marginally attached to the labor force in June. 618,000 more than a year earlier. These individuals wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the past 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey.
Among the marginally attached, there were 793,000 discouraged workers in June, up by 373,000 from a year earlier.
In June, the average workweek for production and nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls fell by 0.1 hour to 33.0 hours--the lowest level on record for the series, which began in 1964.
The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) increased by 433,000 over the month to 4.4 million.
In June, 3 in 10 unemployed persons were jobless for 27 weeks or more.

This morning the stock market reacted negatively to the unemployment report. If you are wondering why--all you need to do is look beyond the obvious.

This is what this website is all about.

These numbers do not bode well for stocks and indicate at best, we are looking at slow growth in the months ahead.

All of the statistics in this article were sourced from the Department of Labor--Bureau of Labor Statistics.

More from All American Investor

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Original content by Bob DeMarco. Also posted on Blog Critics.

Friday, June 12, 2009

Real Retail and Food Services (Graph)

Not a pretty picture. It will be interesting to watch this series in the next few months. No real surprise here. The trend remains down, but could be bottoming.

***Deflated Using the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (1982-84=100)

Bob DeMarco is a citizen journalist and twenty year Wall Street veteran. Bob has written more than 500 articles with more than 11,000 links to his work on the Internet. Content from All American Investor has been syndicated on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Pluck, Blog Critics, and a growing list of newspaper websites. Bob is actively seeking syndication and writing assignments.

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Friday, June 05, 2009

Real Unemployment Jumps to 16.4 Percent (Graph)

Not many people are aware of the U-6 report that is issued by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Most news organizations report the more popular U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics--Civilian Unemployment Rate. If you read this report today then you learned that unemployment jumped to 9.4 percent.

Real Unemployment U-6 -- 16.4%

Source Bureau of Labor Statistics

There is another category of unemployed that are not counted in that report. They are described in the U-6 report this way,

The U-6 report counts everyone that is unemployed. To view the report go here.

U-6

Total unemployed
plus all marginally attached workers
plus total employed part time for economic reasons
as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers

The number reported today for this series is 16.4% .

This paints a very ugly picture for the future.

Kindle: Amazon's 6" Wireless Reading Device

Friday, May 08, 2009

Real Unemployment Now 15.8 Percent

The U-6 report counts everyone that is unemployed. To view the report go here.

U-6

Total unemployed
plus all marginally attached workers
plus total employed part time for economic reasons
as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers

The number reported today for this series is 15.8% .

This paints a very ugly picture for the future.

Unemployment rose to 25 percent during the Great Depression.

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30 Year Conventional Mortgage Rate (Chart)
Top Hedge Fund Managers Make Billions in 2008
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Roubini Predicts U.S. Losses May Reach $3.6 Trillion
Option ARM--The Toxic Mortgage
Warren Buffett's Annual Letter to Investors (Cliff Notes Version)

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Wednesday, March 25, 2009

You could buy this House for $165,000 in South Florida

6 Carlson Place, Palm Coast FL 32137
3 bedrooms, 2 baths, 2,178 square feet

Comes out to about $75 a square foot. Believe it or not, that might be a bit high in South Florida. On the other hand, if its your dream house that is a good price. It also has a nice pool.

I didn't look it up, but I believe homes like this one sold around $375,000 at the peak. Ouch.

Home Description:

Beautiful Carlson Park Estates. This Pool Home Sits On Two Lots Approx. 21,000Sf. On A Very Private Culdesac And Within Walking Distance To Shopping And Medical Facilities. Very Open And Spacious Living And Dining Room Combination. Tiled Kitchen And Baths, Nook And Family Room Overlooking Pool. Split Floor Plan With Vaulted Ceilings. Separate 8X10 Computer Room. This Home Is In Move-In Condition.

Source: Zillow

Tuesday, March 17, 2009

Are the Housing Start Numbers Really a Surprise?

On the business channels, like CNBC, they are really talking up the surprise in the housing starts number. Are they really a surprise?

I wrote previously about how 80 percent of the housing crisis is contained in 35 counties. That is, 35 counties throughout the entire country. Much of the crisis is contained in a small number of geographic areas. Although, the unemployment situation is certainly becoming a factor nationally in he housing statistics. This would be especially true if you live in an area hit by major layoff.

The numbers reported today if looked at in the proper context are pitiful. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of 583,000 units is nothing to write home to "mama" about. This compares to the February 2008 rate of 1,107,000. Down 47 percent.

The more important building permits number rose 3 percent, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 547,000. This number does not indicate a surge in the housing market.

Housing Starts Post Surprise Rebound, Up 22%

The number of new housing projects that builders broke ground on in February rose sharply, defying economists' forecasts for yet another drop in activity.

The Commerce Department reported Tuesday that construction of new homes and apartments jumped 22.2 percent from January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 583,000 units. Economists were expecting construction to drop to a pace of around 450,000 units.

February's pickup was led by a big increase in apartment construction.

By region, all parts of the country reported an increase in overall housing construction, except for the West, which led the housing boom and has been hard hit by the bust.

Overall housing construction activity fell to a pace of 477,000 units in January, according to revised figures. That was a little higher than first reported but still marked a record low.

Applications for building permits, considered a reliable sign of future activity, also rose in February by 3 percent to an annual rate of 547,000. Economists were expecting permits to fall to a pace of 500,000 units.

Even with February's rare burst of activity, housing construction is down a whopping 47.3 percent from a year ago.

The collapse of the once high-flying housing market has been devastating to the United States' economic health.

Its spreading fallout has contributed to big pullbacks by consumers and businesses alike, plunging the economy into a recession now in its second year.

The Obama administration has announced a $75 billion program to stem skyrocketing home foreclosures, which have dumped even more properties on an already crippled market.

More than 2 million American homeowners faced foreclosure proceedings last year, and that number could soar as high as 10 million in the coming years depending on the severity of the recession, according to a report last month by Credit Suisse.

Home mortgages are harder to come by because of the credit crisis and unemployment is at a quarter-century peak of 8.1 percent, factors that will make it difficult for the depressed housing market to snap back to full health.

Builders aren't optimistic that will happen any time soon.

The National Association of Home Builders' housing market index was flat in March at a reading of nine. That was one point above the all-time low reached in January. Readings lower than 50 indicate negative sentiment about the market. The index has been below 10 since November, reflecting the toughest market conditions in a generation.

Tighter lending standards for home mortgages, rising defaults and fear about the housing market's future have sidelined buyers, an absence felt acutely by homebuilders such as D.R. Horton , Pulte Homes and Centex .
Copyright 2009 Reuters. Click for restrictions.

URL: http://www.cnbc.com/id/29734541/

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Wednesday, March 11, 2009

Don't Get Swindled by a Foreclosure Rescue Company

You can always count on the swindlers and scam artists to come out of the woodwork when desperate consumers get in trouble and need help. In this case it is poor unsuspecting consumers that are looking for ways to keep their homes and avoid foreclosure.

The new scam is being run by so called "foreclosure rescue companies". Many of these outfits charge consumers upfront fees and then walk away with the money. In Florida, you will see ads on television all day long offering to save you from the impending disaster of losing your home. More often than not, these "scam artists" have words like "federal" or "government" in their company name. The company names are intentionally misleading and often lead consumers to believe they are somehow connected to the so called federal government "housing bailout". In other words, official government agencies.

If you are in dire straights I would suggest two paths to getting help. First, talk to the company that services your mortgage loan. Many of these companies have set up relief programs to help stressed out consumers. Second, here are two websites you can go to find local housing counselors: Guide to Avoiding Foreclosure or Housing Crisis Resource Center.

Swindlers Find Growing Market in Foreclosures

Tuesday, March 10, 2009

TALF a Trillion for Commercial Real Estate

If you live in Florida one thing you notice is empty stores in malls. In Delray Beach we have one of those giant strip malls--lots of empty space. It is really startling to see. Restaurants in business for 20 years or more--gone. Circuit City, Linens and Things, you name it gone. And, associated businesses around these anchors--going, going, gone. The mall in Boynton Beach, Walgreens, now closing at 7 PM.

In carrying out the Financial Stability Plan, the Department of the Treasury and the Federal Reserve Board are announcing the launch of the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF), a component of the Consumer and Business Lending Initiative (CBLI). The TALF has the potential to generate up to $1 trillion of lending for businesses and households.

Here comes TALF to the rescue. One potato Wall Street, two potato banks, three potato homeowners, and a steak for commercial real estate.

The Treasury is readying a giant bailout for commercial real estate properties as rents fall and vacancies rise. Is this the next shoe ready to drop?

See Fed Press Release and Real estate woes seep into malls, office towers

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Bob DeMarco is a citizen journalist, blogger, and Caregiver. Bob has written more than 500 articles with more than 11,000 links to his work on the Internet. The content has been syndicated on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Pluck, Blog Critics, and a growing list of newspaper websites. Bob is actively seeking syndication and writing assignments.

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Ray Dalio on the current state of affairs in the market

Roubini Predicts U.S. Losses May Reach $3.6 Trillion

Six Errors on the Path to the Financial Crisis

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Option ARM--The Toxic Mortgage

Debt Binge--The Perfect Financial Storm

Warren Buffett's Annual Letter to Investors (Cliff Notes Version)

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Wednesday, March 04, 2009

Mortgage Modification Plan--Making Homes Affordable

The Treasury Department released the guidelines of its mortgage modification today. The program will help up to 9 million homeowners avoid foreclosure. The guidelines will enable mortgage servicers to begin modifying mortgages right away. Please note: the Treasury program also includes incentives for removing second liens on loans.

You can follow this link,
Making Home Affordable , and find the links to self assessment questionnaires and contact information.

Or hit these links:

Here is the link to the main website Financial Stability.gov. The links below lead to the detailed information (PDF format):

Ok, you are good to go. Good luck. If you found this information helpful let us know.

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Bob DeMarco is a citizen journalist, blogger, and Caregiver. In addition to being an experienced writer he taught at the University of Georgia , was an Associate Director and Limited Partner at Bear Stearns, was CEO of IP Group, and is a mentor. Bob currently resides in Delray Beach, FL where he cares for his mother, Dorothy, who suffers from Alzheimer's disease. Bob has written more than 500 articles with more than 11,000 links to his work on the Internet. His content has been syndicated on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Pluck, Blog Critics, and a growing list of newspaper websites. Bob is actively seeking syndication and writing assignments.

More from All American Investor

Systemic Risk Defined--Too Big to Fail

Ray Dalio on the current state of affairs in the market

Roubini Predicts U.S. Losses May Reach $3.6 Trillion

Six Errors on the Path to the Financial Crisis

Who Caused the Financial Crisis?

Option ARM--The Toxic Mortgage

Debt Binge--The Perfect Financial Storm

Warren Buffett's Annual Letter to Investors (Cliff Notes Version)

Bold Endeavors: How Our Government Built America, and Why It Must Rebuild Now