Ten Year Treasury Constant Maturity (Chart)

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Original content Bob DeMarco, All American Investor

30 Year Treasury in Perspective (Graph)

The 30 Year Treasury Constant Maturity.



Notes:

• Unless you are over 50 years old, it is probably hard to believe that the 30 year Treasury bond traded above 15 percent.
• In 1982, you could have bought a $1,000,000 Treasury zero coupon bond for $15,000. This allowed you to lock in a compounded interest rate of 15 percent for 30 years. Imagine investing $15,000 of your IRA or 401K and watching it grow, risk free, to $1,000,000.
• Recently, the 30 year spiked down to the 2.50 percent area and right back to the 3.50 percent area.
• The low yield for the long term treasury bond is in, and rates should begin to move higher soon.
• Interest rate trends tend to persist. They tend to last for long periods of time.
• The spike low in the 2.50 area on the long bond is evidence of a final extreme in long term rates.
• Interest rates tend to go to an extreme when making a high or a low.

Yields on actively traded non-inflation-indexed issues adjusted to constant maturities. The 30-year Treasury constant maturity series was discontinued on February 18, 2002, and reintroduced on February 9, 2006.

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Bob DeMarco is a citizen journalist and twenty year Wall Street veteran. Bob has written more than 500 articles with more than 11,000 links to his work on the Internet. Content from All American Investor has been syndicated on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Pluck, Blog Critics, and a growing list of newspaper websites. Bob is actively seeking syndication and writing assignments.

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Ten Year Treasury Perspective (Chart)

Notes:

• Every time I look at this chart I think about 1978-82.
• During that period it was not unusual to watch the 3 month Treasury bill move 50 basis points in a day.
• On a slow day the trading range in the Ten Year was a point and one-half.
• Interest Rates on the Ten Year Treasury rose over 15 percent. Mortgage rates also moved above 15 percent.
• Everyone was so bearish they wouldn't touch the Ten Year or Long Bond.
  
• I continue to ask myself, will we see double digit ten year Treasury rates again?
• The obvious answer is, YES.
• Flash forward 30 years.
• The Ten Year is trading at 2.91 percent. Will rates ever go up?
  
• It looks like the Ten Year is making a low in this area.
  
• A close above 3.125 percent would indicate higher interest rates and a trend change.
  
• I learned a long time ago that trends start when you least expect them.
• Once a trend starts it tends to persist for a long time.
• One thing I know for sure -- rates always go a lot lower, and a lot higher than you could have ever expected--at the extremes.
• Investors should be thinking about ways to take advantage of increases in interest rates.
• Once rates start up they should do so for many years.
  

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Bob DeMarco is a citizen journalist and twenty year Wall Street veteran. Bob has written more than 500 articles with more than 11,000 links to his work on the Internet. Content from All American Investor has been syndicated on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Pluck, Blog Critics, and a growing list of newspaper websites. Bob is actively seeking syndication and writing assignments.

Ten Year Treasury Chart, 1962 to the present

Ten Year Treasury Constant Maturity

Link to the Chart.

10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate

Ten year Treasury yields are at their lowest levels in more than 45 years. You will notice the peak yield, above 15 percent, occurred in 1982. File this one under food for thought. Click the link in the chart for the larger view or to change the time frame.

clipped from research.stlouisfed.org