10 Year Treasury Peaks at 15.68 Percent, Trends

The Ten Year Treasury note peaked at an all time high yield on September 25, 1981 at 15.68 percent. The yield has been falling since that peak. For more than 29 years.....

By Bob DeMarco
All American Investor

August 2010 QUARTERLY REFUNDING STATEMENT

The U.S. Department of the Treasury is offering $74 billion of Treasury securities to refund approximately $33.0 billion of privately held securities maturing on August 15, 2010. This will raise approximately $41 billion.

10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate

Current: 3.55 percent.

Economist Samuelson Warns about China Pessimism and a Run on the Dollar

These are sobering words from renowned economist Paul Samuelson.

Some day -- maybe even soon -- China will turn pessimistic on the U.S. dollar.

That means lethal troubles for the future U.S. economy.

When a disorderly run against the dollar occurs, I believe a truly global financial panic is to be feared. China, Japan and Korea now hold dollars not because they think dollars will stay safe.

Why then?.....

The threat that China and others countries might divest the dollar is starting to cause jitters in the Treasury market. If the countries Samuelson mentioned held on to their dollar assets --but cut back on their purchases of U.S. Treasuries-- interest rates higher immediately.

The given in this equation is that the amounts of Treasuries coming on to the market in the years ahead is enormous.

Growing supply, and the likelihood that U. S. Treasury debt will get downgraded, means that the risk premium for owning longer dated treasuries is likely to rise and rise sharply.

During the early 1990s this risk premium rose to more than five percent.

Lets say we find ourselves with a three percent inflation rate in the next 12-18 months. What is the rate we could see in the ten years treasury?

8-11 percent. Inflation, inflation expectation, dollar risk, supply, plus a fair rate of interest all add to the interest rate that investors will demand in order to buy. It is not hard to envision five or more points of risk premium.

Does it make good sense in this environment to be fully invested in stocks?

My guess is that we are going to see a sharp uptick in inflation in the next 12-18 months. Given the enormous expansion in the money supply it is not hard to envision three percent inflation. Add in the necessary risk premium for owning longer dated securities, and it is not hard to envision sharply higher rates.

Right now most analysts continue to mention how inflation is not a problem. In 1980, when inflation was hitting 1.5 percent per month, analysts were forecasting higher inflation and higher interest rates in the future. Inflation peaked right then and right there.

Our we at the trough in inflation now?

Anybody old enough to remember when the ten year treasury yield was above 15 percent? Three month treasury bill at 14 percent?

It is time to be risk adverse. Not the time to be betting the ranch in the stock market.

To read the entire Samuelson article go here.

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Bob DeMarco is a citizen journalist and twenty year Wall Street veteran. Bob has written more than 700 articles with more than 18,000 links to his work on the Internet. Content from All American Investor has been syndicated on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Pluck, Blog Critics, and a growing list of newspaper websites. Bob is actively seeking syndication and writing assignments.

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Mortgage Interest Rates Go Verticle (Graph)

The negative implications of the sharp rise in mortgage interest rates are to many to list. When interest rates rise house get more expensive. This is likely to slow the economic recovery in housing -- a real negative. Another likely outcome is the end of the refinancing boom.

Let's not forget, the Treasury has been in the markets buying Treasury securities and mortgage backed securities. As we have pointed out for many months, the Treasury balance sheet is exploding with no end in sight. Rates continue to rise against this background.

It should be clear that there is little or nothing that the FED and Treasury can do to stem the rise in longer dated securities.

Here is another little noticed fact that we will be writing about soon. Since June 1, the two year treasury has risen 26 basis points, while the ten year treasury has dropped 4 basis points. This means the yield curve is flattening. Go here for the Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates.

My guess is in the next 12-18 months the market will realize that stagflation is the name of the game.

This is the worst thing that can happen to the dollar. The only thing that could stem a run on the dollar is FED tightening.

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Bob DeMarco is a citizen journalist and twenty year Wall Street veteran. Bob has written more than 500 articles with more than 11,000 links to his work on the Internet. Content from All American Investor has been syndicated on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Pluck, Blog Critics, and a growing list of newspaper websites. Bob is actively seeking syndication and writing assignments.

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Bond Vigilantes Take over in the Long End (Graph)

If you were around during the 1980s you know all about the bond vigilantes. When inflation is on the horizon they take over in the long end of the Treasury market.

The 30 year chart above shows that institutional investors are worried about the current policies of the Federal Reserve and Treasury. When this occurs, a interest rate risk premium gets built into the bond. In other words, investors want a bigger cushion to accept the risk of investing in long term Treasury Bonds.

These interest rates look high in comparison to recent history. However, if you are old enough you will remember when the long bond traded above 15 percent. Right now, if you told someone you believed that could happen again, they would tell you -- you are nuts.

They told me I was nuts when I wrote about fire not smoke, when the S and P 500 was in the 1250 area. Nobody thought we could see the stock market fall in half from those levels.

Over the next few years, talk about a downgrade of U.S. debt is going to increase. It appears right now that the downgrade is inevitable. However, it is probably two to four years in the future. The market will discount the downgrade before it happens.

Expect 30 year Treasury bond yields to continue to rise for the foreseeable future. Constant Treasury intervention to try and hold down long term interest rates will fail.

Remember when the Treasury intervened in the Gold market over and over to try and hold prices down?

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Bob DeMarco is a citizen journalist and twenty year Wall Street veteran. Bob has written more than 500 articles with more than 11,000 links to his work on the Internet. Content from All American Investor has been syndicated on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Pluck, Blog Critics, and a growing list of newspaper websites. Bob is actively seeking syndication and writing assignments.

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Ten Year Treasury Yield in Orbit (Graph)

The sharp rise in the Ten Year Treasury note yield will come as no surprise to readers of this blog. We forecasted this development, based on Federal Reserve and Treasury policy, several months ago when we pointed out that once the yield exceeded 3.125 percent, it was up up and away on our beautiful, beautiful money machine.

Our new song is, there ain't no stopping it now. Oh, the Treasury will come in and buy some size in longer dated Treasuries and mortgage back securities, forcing a short lived, temporary drop in rates from time to time.

As you can see if you look at the red line on the chart, this market continues to stay overbought. This is not a negative sign, quite the opposite, it signals the enormous strength of this trend up in interest rates.

Expect the Fed to defend the 4.00% with both hands and both feet. It will be interesting to see if they can stem the tide of rising interest rates in the longer end of the market.

This rise in ten year interest rates has lots of negative implications. However, the single biggest negative is simple --the refinancing boom is over. With mortgage rates well over 5 percent now, the economics won't work for the vast number of mortgage owners that refinanced in prior drops into the current area.

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Bob DeMarco is a citizen journalist and twenty year Wall Street veteran. Bob has written more than 500 articles with more than 11,000 links to his work on the Internet. Content from All American Investor has been syndicated on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Pluck, Blog Critics, and a growing list of newspaper websites. Bob is actively seeking syndication and writing assignments.

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Corporate Aaa | Ten Year Treasury (Chart)

Moody's Seasoned Aaa Corporate Bond Yield, Weekly, Ending Friday, Percent (Blue)
10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate, Daily, Percent (Red)



Spread narrows slightly, but still a historically wide risk premium.

Rates moving up across all quality preferences.

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30 Year Treasury Bond Constant Maturity (Chart)

30 Year Treasury, Constant Maturity, Chart



The Chart tells the story.

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Ten Year Interest Rates Rising (Chart)

Ten Year, Interest Rate View, Chart, Monthly Bar Chart



The Ten Year Note interest rate continues to rise. Right now, it is somewhat overbought.

Long term interest are on the rise. The FED continues to try and hold interest rates down. This is reflected by the steepening of the yield curve.

The bad news here is that mortgage rates are driven by the ten year yield and are now above five percent.

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Bob DeMarco is a citizen journalist and twenty year Wall Street veteran. Bob has written more than 500 articles with more than 11,000 links to his work on the Internet. Content from All American Investor has been syndicated on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Pluck, Blog Critics, and a growing list of newspaper websites. Bob is actively seeking syndication and writing assignments.

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Is Gold Ready to Glitter? (Outlook, Chart)

June Gold, Bar, Chart


Gold has a tendency to be seasonally week from March through August. As a result, it is always risky to speculate in gold during this time frame.

In April, we wrote that gold was likely to test the 865 - 875 area. This happened, the market held, and made a very nice double bottom. This is now an area of major support.

Right now gold is running into resistance in the 827 area.

Any close over 827.50 would indicate that gold is ready to move higher.

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The market place is now starting to focus on the potential inflationary impact of the policies being carried out by the Federal Reserve and Treasury. The money supply, Fed balance sheet, and reserve balances are all soaring. The Treasury is buying mortgage backed securities and treasuries in an attempt to keep interest rates artificially low.

This is a big positive for gold. The marketplace is beginning to sense that a major increase in inflation is on the horizon. Gold is likely to discount this phenomena well in advance.

Gold, like all commodities, goes up when demand increases and supplies get tight. Both are happening right now.

What to watch:

• Purchases of gold by the SPDR Gold Shares -- GLD. The ETF is now the sixth largest holder of gold in the world. When demand for the shares increase their purchases of physical gold increase.
  
• Demand out of China. This includes buys by the Central Bank and demand for jewelry. Sooner or later demand from China is going to be explosive. While it is not well known, during the last big bull market in gold, much of the upside was fueled by purchases out of Hong Kong.
• Any close over 827.50 basis June Gold.
  

Background:

• Gold has a tendency to be weak on a seasonal basis at this time of year. This pattern usually persists until summer.
• Industrial and jewelry demand for gold has been slow due to the weakness in the global economy.
• The market experienced some jitters on a rumor of IMF gold sales. This is not happening.
• The market also sold off on news out of India that demand for gold was dropping.
  
• Seasonal demand patterns in gold are sometimes offset by investor demand for physical gold and ETFs.
  
• Central banks continue to be large net sellers of Gold. Central banks have been net sellers of gold sales since 1999. Obviously, investor demand has been offsetting these large sales.

Here is some history on gold since 1980.

• Gold rallied from $135 an ounce in 1978 to $860 an ounce in 1980.
• The late 70s-80s gold rush was caused by consumer fears about inflation. The monthly CPI reading reached 1.5 percent in 1980. Gold peaked along with the inflation rate.
• From 1980 until late 1999 gold prices trended down.
• Gold bottomed near $250 an ounce in 1999.
• When gold was making its lows in 1999, most of the major Central Banks around the world announced they intended to sell-off a large fraction of their gold reserves (400 tonnes a year, 2000 tonnes total).
  
• Central banks are still selling their gold reserves in 2009 (500 tonnes a year, 2500 tonnes total).
  
• Central banks continue to sell gold and the price continues to rise.
• Since the late 1980s the purchases of gold by institutional investors has been rising. This trend continues and seems to be picking up momentum.
  
• Demand for gold rose sharply in the fourth quarter of 2008, up 27 percent to $26.7 billion (year over year, Q4-2007 versus Q4- 2008).
  
  
  

  Bob DeMarco is a citizen journalist and twenty year Wall Street veteran. Bob has written more than 500 articles with more than 11,000 links to his work on the Internet. Content from All American Investor has been syndicated on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Pluck, Blog Critics, and a growing list of newspaper websites. Bob is actively seeking syndication and writing assignments.

  
  
  
  
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Ten Year Treasury Should Worry Investors (Chart)

Ten Year Treasury Constant Maturity

For several weeks, I have been writing about longer dated Treasury securities and the importance of paying attention to interest rates if you are an investor.

The ten year Treasury interest rate is moving up fast. This week it challenged and broke the important 3.125 area. At the same time, the FOMC reaffirmed its intention of buying treasury securities in size.

Federal Reserve will buy up to $300 billion of Treasury securities by autumn.

The Fed can hold down short term interest rates until inflation picks up. However, the Fed cannot hold down long term interest.

I also posted charts  showing the growth of the Fed's balance sheet and the explosive growth in money supply.

The bond vigilantes are coming back. Soon this will be the talk of the town. And, discussion about inflation and risk premiums will bring new jitters into the stock market.

You heard it here first.

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Bob DeMarco is a citizen journalist and twenty year Wall Street veteran. Bob has written more than 500 articles with more than 11,000 links to his work on the Internet. Content from All American Investor has been syndicated on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Pluck, Blog Critics, and a growing list of newspaper websites. Bob is actively seeking syndication and writing assignments.

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Fed Monetizing Debt -- How long before the Inflation Comes?

No matter how you cut or slice it, the FED is going to monetize debt. This means you want to be owning stocks and ETFs that benefit from an increase in inflation.

Over the next week, we will be putting up some of our ideas on how to take advantage of this scenario.

If you have been following the charts on All American Investor -- you noticed that I have been talking about rising rates in the ten and thirty year treasuries for a few weeks. If you are not paying close attention to this as in investor you are making a big mistake.

The bond vigilantes are coming back, and soon with a vengeance. Longer dated treasury interest rates are drifting up. This, in spite, of massive buying of treasuries by the FED -- we showed the balance sheet on Saturday.

Here is a snippet from the latest FOMC release:

As previously announced, to provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve will purchase a total of up to $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and up to $200 billion of agency debt by the end of the year. In addition, the Federal Reserve will buy up to $300 billion of Treasury securities by autumn. The Committee will continue to evaluate the timing and overall amounts of its purchases of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets. The Federal Reserve is facilitating the extension of credit to households and businesses and supporting the functioning of financial markets through a range of liquidity programs. The Committee will continue to carefully monitor the size and composition of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet in light of financial and economic developments.

Buy $300 billion of treasuries by Autumn?

The best way to think of the current scenario is like boiling water in a tea pot. Sooner or later, the whistle will blow.

Don't like the above? Remember, I am the same guy that predicted this really in stocks when I wrote:

• They call me crazy -- S and P 900-1000
• and, Stocks Don't Fight the Tape.

There is a lot of chicken on the hill. My guess here right now is: material stocks, commodity stocks, related ETFs and short the long bond.

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Treasury Borrowing increased By $196 Billion (April - June)

Treasury Announces Marketable Borrowing Estimates

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today announced its current estimates of marketable borrowing for the April - June 2009 and July – September 2009 quarters:

During the April – June 2009 quarter. 

• Treasury expects to borrow $361 billion of marketable debt, 
• assuming an end-of-June cash balance of $245 billion, 
• which includes $200 billion for the Supplementary Financing Program (SFP). 
• The borrowing estimate is $196 billion higher than announced in February 2009. The increase in borrowing is primarily related to a continuation of the SFP, and lower receipts and outlays.

During the July – September quarter. 

• Treasury expects to borrow $515 billion of marketable debt,
• assuming an end-of-September cash balance of $270 billion,
• which includes $200 billion for the SFP.
  

Also see: Statement for the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee

Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury.

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30 Year Goverment Bond Signaling Problems Ahead (Chart)

Thirty Year Government Bond, Daily Price.


The 30 year Treasury Bond yield is drifting slowly upwards. This indicates there is little interest in the bond. With a slew of government debt on the horizon this does not bode well.

The thirty year remains a good proxy of future inflation expectations and should be watched closely. This is exactly what we intend to do.

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Bob DeMarco is a citizen journalist and twenty year Wall Street veteran. Bob has written more than 500 articles with more than 11,000 links to his work on the Internet. Content from All American Investor has been syndicated on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Pluck, Blog Critics, and a growing list of newspaper websites. Bob is actively seeking syndication and writing assignments.

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10 Year Treasury Closes above 3 Percent (Graph)

Ten Year Treasury Daily Yield Chart



The ten year Treasury closed at 3.03 on Friday. It looks to me like interest rates are turning up in spite of the FEDs buying of treasuries and mortgage backed securities. This does not bode well for longer dated Treasury securities in the months ahead. Treasury supply is going to rise dramatically and right now there is little demand for the ten year as evidenced by the shape of the yield curve.

I expect the ten year to test the critical 3.125 area soon. If this area is broken the long term downtrend in ten year interest rates will have come to an end.

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Bob DeMarco is a citizen journalist and twenty year Wall Street veteran. Bob has written more than 500 articles with more than 11,000 links to his work on the Internet. Content from All American Investor has been syndicated on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Pluck, Blog Critics, and a growing list of newspaper websites. Bob is actively seeking syndication and writing assignments.

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Bonds -- Corporate Baa Versus 10 Year Treasury Yield and Spread (Graph)

The spread between Corporate Baa and Treasury bonds remains wide. The risk premium evidences the considerable nervousness in the market place. Action by the Treasury and Federal Reserve are keeping treasury yields artificially low. I am expecting yields across all quality preferences to continue to rise.

In 2007, the spread was running around 175 basis point. It is now in the 550 basis points area.

Corporate Baa--blue line. 10 Year Treasury--red line.

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Bob DeMarco is a citizen journalist and twenty year Wall Street veteran. Bob has written more than 500 articles with more than 11,000 links to his work on the Internet. Content from All American Investor has been syndicated on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Pluck, Blog Critics, and a growing list of newspaper websites. Bob is actively seeking syndication and writing assignments.

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Ten Year Treasury Rates Bottoming (Chart)

Ten year interest rates are in the process of bottoming as evidenced by this chart. There is a continued artificial cap at 3 percent. Once this cap is broken a long term rise in interest rates will be underway.

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Bob DeMarco is a citizen journalist and twenty year Wall Street veteran. Bob has written more than 500 articles with more than 11,000 links to his work on the Internet. Content from All American Investor has been syndicated on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Pluck, Blog Critics, and a growing list of newspaper websites. Bob is actively seeking syndication and writing assignments.

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GM getting ready for Surgery

The Treasury is directing GM to prepare a bankruptcy plan.

Treasury officials are examining one potential outcome in which the “good G.M.” enters and exits bankruptcy protection in as little as two weeks, using $5 billion to $7 billion in federal financing, a person who had been briefed on the prospect said last week.

The rest of G.M. may require as much as $70 billion in government financing, and possibly more to resolve the health care obligations and the liquidation of the factories, according to legal experts and federal officials.

‘Surgical’ Bankruptcy Possible for G.M.

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Are Ten Year Treasury rates ready to move higher? (Graph)

10 Year Treasury, Interest Rate View, Chart



It appears that the 10 Year Treasury has bottomed and interest rates are poised to move higher. There seems to be resistance at 3.00 percent and 3.125 percent. Once these areas are exceeded, we should be looking for higher interest rates. An increase in the ten year treasury rate is likely to force mortgage rates higher.

This interest rate series should be watched closely in the weeks ahead

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Bob DeMarco is a citizen journalist and twenty year Wall Street veteran. Bob has written more than 500 articles with more than 11,000 links to his work on the Internet. Content from All American Investor has been syndicated on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Pluck, Blog Critics, and a growing list of newspaper websites. Bob is actively seeking syndication and writing assignments.

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