Showing posts with label interest. Show all posts
Showing posts with label interest. Show all posts

Friday, July 31, 2009

Federal Government Receipts Dropping Uh Oh (Graph)


Investor pay attention. Federal government receipts are dropping. This is a negative especially on the dollar. It also means that shortfalls are likely to lead to bigger auctions of government securities down the road.

Once this series becomes more widely discussed in the media it is likely to create investor uncertainty about the future. This is never a good thing for the market.

With the S and P 500 near 1000, investors should start to assume a more cautious stance.

A short fall in government receipts is a negative on the dollar, will likely lead to higher long term interest rates, and could lead to crowding out in the corporate securities market.

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Saturday, June 06, 2009

Bond Vigilantes Take over in the Long End (Graph)


30 Year Bond Infaltion Vigilantes Take Over (Graph)

If you were around during the 1980s you know all about the bond vigilantes. When inflation is on the horizon they take over in the long end of the Treasury market.

The 30 year chart above shows that institutional investors are worried about the current policies of the Federal Reserve and Treasury. When this occurs, a interest rate risk premium gets built into the bond. In other words, investors want a bigger cushion to accept the risk of investing in long term Treasury Bonds.

These interest rates look high in comparison to recent history. However, if you are old enough you will remember when the long bond traded above 15 percent. Right now, if you told someone you believed that could happen again, they would tell you -- you are nuts.

They told me I was nuts when I wrote about fire not smoke, when the S and P 500 was in the 1250 area. Nobody thought we could see the stock market fall in half from those levels.

Over the next few years, talk about a downgrade of U.S. debt is going to increase. It appears right now that the downgrade is inevitable. However, it is probably two to four years in the future. The market will discount the downgrade before it happens.

Expect 30 year Treasury bond yields to continue to rise for the foreseeable future. Constant Treasury intervention to try and hold down long term interest rates will fail.

Remember when the Treasury intervened in the Gold market over and over to try and hold prices down?
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Bob DeMarco is a citizen journalist and twenty year Wall Street veteran. Bob has written more than 500 articles with more than 11,000 links to his work on the Internet. Content from All American Investor has been syndicated on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Pluck, Blog Critics, and a growing list of newspaper websites. Bob is actively seeking syndication and writing assignments.


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Ten Year Treasury Yield in Orbit (Graph)


Ten Year Treasury Yield in Orbit (Graph)

The sharp rise in the Ten Year Treasury note yield will come as no surprise to readers of this blog. We forecasted this development, based on Federal Reserve and Treasury policy, several months ago when we pointed out that once the yield exceeded 3.125 percent, it was up up and away on our beautiful, beautiful money machine.

Our new song is, there ain't no stopping it now. Oh, the Treasury will come in and buy some size in longer dated Treasuries and mortgage back securities, forcing a short lived, temporary drop in rates from time to time.

As you can see if you look at the red line on the chart, this market continues to stay overbought. This is not a negative sign, quite the opposite, it signals the enormous strength of this trend up in interest rates.

Expect the Fed to defend the 4.00% with both hands and both feet. It will be interesting to see if they can stem the tide of rising interest rates in the longer end of the market.

This rise in ten year interest rates has lots of negative implications. However, the single biggest negative is simple --the refinancing boom is over. With mortgage rates well over 5 percent now, the economics won't work for the vast number of mortgage owners that refinanced in prior drops into the current area.
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Bob DeMarco is a citizen journalist and twenty year Wall Street veteran. Bob has written more than 500 articles with more than 11,000 links to his work on the Internet. Content from All American Investor has been syndicated on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Pluck, Blog Critics, and a growing list of newspaper websites. Bob is actively seeking syndication and writing assignments.


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Wednesday, May 27, 2009

Ten Year Interest Rates Rising (Chart)


Ten Year, Interest Rate View, Chart, Monthly Bar Chart

Ten Year Note 527


The Ten Year Note interest rate continues to rise. Right now, it is somewhat overbought.

Long term interest are on the rise. The FED continues to try and hold interest rates down. This is reflected by the steepening of the yield curve.

The bad news here is that mortgage rates are driven by the ten year yield and are now above five percent.
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Bob DeMarco is a citizen journalist and twenty year Wall Street veteran. Bob has written more than 500 articles with more than 11,000 links to his work on the Internet. Content from All American Investor has been syndicated on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Pluck, Blog Critics, and a growing list of newspaper websites. Bob is actively seeking syndication and writing assignments.


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Wednesday, May 13, 2009

30 Year Conventional Mortgage Rate Ticks Up (Chart)


Slight up tick but still below 5 percent. Fed buying of mortgage backed securities and treasuries is still holding rates down.


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Wednesday, May 06, 2009

30 Year Conventional Mortgage Rate (Chart, 0506)



30 Year Mortgage
  • Mortgage interest rate remain low and are hovering around 4.80 percent.
  • Meanwhile, the ten year Treasury yield is rising and mortgages are tied to treasuries in the long run. 
  • Mortgage interest rates remain low as the FED continues to buy mortgage backed securities and add them to their balance sheet.  
  • The FED action is capping rates in the mortgage area for now.
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Friday, May 01, 2009

Ten Year Treasury Should Worry Investors (Chart)


Ten Year Treasury Constant Maturity

For several weeks, I have been writing about longer dated Treasury securities and the importance of paying attention to interest rates if you are an investor.

The ten year Treasury interest rate is moving up fast. This week it challenged and broke the important 3.125 area. At the same time, the FOMC reaffirmed its intention of buying treasury securities in size.
Federal Reserve will buy up to $300 billion of Treasury securities by autumn.
The Fed can hold down short term interest rates until inflation picks up. However, the Fed cannot hold down long term interest.

I also posted charts  showing the growth of the Fed's balance sheet and the explosive growth in money supply.

The bond vigilantes are coming back. Soon this will be the talk of the town. And, discussion about inflation and risk premiums will bring new jitters into the stock market.

You heard it here first.

Ten Year Treasury 501
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Bob DeMarco is a citizen journalist and twenty year Wall Street veteran. Bob has written more than 500 articles with more than 11,000 links to his work on the Internet. Content from All American Investor has been syndicated on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Pluck, Blog Critics, and a growing list of newspaper websites. Bob is actively seeking syndication and writing assignments.


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Saturday, April 25, 2009

10 Year Treasury Closes above 3 Percent (Graph)


Ten Year Treasury Daily Yield Chart

10 Year Treasury Interest Rate Chart 424

The ten year Treasury closed at 3.03 on Friday. It looks to me like interest rates are turning up in spite of the FEDs buying of treasuries and mortgage backed securities. This does not bode well for longer dated Treasury securities in the months ahead. Treasury supply is going to rise dramatically and right now there is little demand for the ten year as evidenced by the shape of the yield curve.

I expect the ten year to test the critical 3.125 area soon. If this area is broken the long term downtrend in ten year interest rates will have come to an end.
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Bob DeMarco is a citizen journalist and twenty year Wall Street veteran. Bob has written more than 500 articles with more than 11,000 links to his work on the Internet. Content from All American Investor has been syndicated on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Pluck, Blog Critics, and a growing list of newspaper websites. Bob is actively seeking syndication and writing assignments.


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Monday, March 30, 2009

Big Boys Buying Mortgages In Reaction to Treasury Plan


Big Boy Investors like PIMCO, TCW, and Fifth Third Asset Management are buying mortgage backed securities and favoring them over treasuries.
A March 23 Ried, Thunberg & Co. survey said fund managers overseeing $1.19 trillion cut their government securities holdings to the least this year while they increased mortgage assets.
This is in reaction to the Federal Reserves March 18 plan to buy Treasuries and $750 billion of mortgage-backed securities from Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae.

So far the plan which is designed to lower consumer interest rates by taking supply out of the market seems to be working. A contrarian might ask? Is this front running or the makings of a trend that can be sustained over a long period of time?

Interest rate spreads are clearly narrowing across most quality preferences. The spread between the ten year Treasury and Fannie Mae’s current-coupon 30- year fixed-rate narrowed to 118 basis points last week, down from 232 basis points in November. The spread on industrial corporates narrowed from 557 basis points to 468 basis point since the announcement.

These narrowing in the interest rate spreads can also be seen as a vote of confidence for the recently announced Fed plan.

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Saturday, March 14, 2009

30-Year Conventional Mortgage Rate (Chart)



Source : St Louis Federal Reserve Bank
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Tuesday, March 10, 2009

Roubini on Interest Rates, Global Fiscal Policy, and Housing (Part Three)


Roubini on interest rates, global fiscal policy, and housing.

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Monday, February 23, 2009

Should Rick Santelli Care that Credit Card Companies are Raising Rates?


Where is Rick Santelli when you really need him? Ready to call people current on their mortgage--losers, Rick Santelli is no where to be found as credit card companies raise interest rates on customers--good or bad. Here is an issue you could sink your teeth into Rick, and I am going to help you understand it. No ignorance is bliss on this one.

Lets start with the reason credit card companies are raising rates. They will tell you, Rick, more customers are defaulting on their credit cards so they have to raise rates on good customers to make up the difference. So the losers--those unable to pay their credit card bills-- are causing the winners--those that are paying their credit card bills--to pay more (higher interest rates).

Credit card rates can go as high as 25-30 percent depending on state. This might get your Republican (or is it Liberatarian?) blood boiling Rick. Hillary Clinton while running for President told Ohioans,
“I’ve advocated that we rein in the credit card interest rates, cap them at 30 percent and get them below,” she said.
Ohioans owe around $30 billion on their credit cards. Gee, thanks Hillary.

Regardless of credit rating, credit card companies can charge you any rate they see fit as long as they keep it below 30 percent or the highest allowable rate in a given state. Politicians clearly in the pocket of the credit card companies are allowing these high rates of interest. Some might think of 25 percent as usury. Not as bad as loan sharking--but close.

Any of those guys that live in Barrington, Illinois that were cheering for you the other day getting screwed Rick? Would you call someone who has been paying their credit card bill month after month, year after year, a loser Rick? And, if they have been paying faithfully is it fair to raise their interest rate because "losers" aren't paying?

Rick, Help for Homeowners got you in a tizzy the other day--the rant. All of housing accounts for about 16 percent of GDP. The biggest category in GDP is retail sales. Retail sales account for about 66-70 percent of GDP. So when a credit card company raises interest rates they take money away from retail sales the lifeblood of GDP. I think it is safe to assume that most people paying interest on a credit cards are living pay check to pay check. So, their disposal income goes down if they have to send more bucks to the credit card company. As an aside, credit card companies are also raising minimum payments. Isn't this anti-American Rick?

Rick, someone needs to wake up the Obama administration about this. You seem to have their attention, and I bet if you attack on this issue not only will your blackberry freeze it will likely explode--this is the stuff that makes hero's. Somebody has to do it Rick--and you are the best man for the job.

By the way Rick, the banks that received TARP money are raising credit cards interest rates on existing credit card customers. This means they are taking your hard earned bucks and robbing the winners. I think its time for you to get your constituency riled up.
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Source of these quotes: Credit Card Companies Raising Rates on Consumers
  • “I received notice that the interest on my Chase card will go up from 4.24% APR to 9.24%,” Chase customer John Biek said in an email to FOX Business.

  • Gary Barrett told FOX Business that his Capital One card rate was going to increase from 14.3% to 17.9%. “This is a card that normally I carry a balance of less than $800, and frequently it has no balance due, and I have never been late on a payment,” Barrett wrote in an email.

  • And Patricia of York, Pa., said in an email that her Capital One Visa will see a hike as well: “My current rate of interest is 5.37%. The notice states that [the] rate increase will go to 13.9% on purchases [and] 24.9% on cash advance.”

  • “Bank of America is doing the most dramatic changes I’ve seen,” said Emily Peters, a personal-finance expert for Credit.com. She said she has heard of cases where BofA card rates have been going up 10 to 20 percentage points.


Feel free to email this to Rick Santelli.

Rick's CNBC Bio

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