Roubini Statement on the Outlook for the U.S. Economy

The following is a statement from Dr. Nouriel Roubini, Chairman of RGE Monitor and Professor, New York University, Stern School of Business:

“It has been widely reported today that I have stated that the recession will be over “this year” and that I have “improved” my economic outlook. Despite those reports - however – my views expressed today are no different than the views I have expressed previously. If anything my views were taken out of context.

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STATEMENT ON U.S. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK BY DR. NOURIEL ROUBINI

“I have said on numerous occasions that the recession would last roughly 24 months. Therefore, we are 19 months into that recession. If as I predicted the recession is over by year end, it will have lasted 24 months with a recovery only beginning in 2010. Simply put I am not forecasting economic growth before year’s end.

“Indeed, last year I argued that this will be a long and deep and protracted U-shaped recession that would last 24 months. Meanwhile, the consensus argued that this would be a short and shallow V-shaped 8 months long recession (like those in 1990-91 and 2001). That debate is over today as we are in the 19th month of a severe recession; so the V is out of the window and we are in a deep U-shaped recession. If that recession were to be over by year end – as I have consistently predicted – it would have lasted 24 months and thus been three times longer than the previous two and five times deeper – in terms of cumulative GDP contraction – than the previous two. So, there is nothing new in my remarks today about the recession being over at the end of this year.

“I have also consistently argued – including in my remarks today - that while the consensus predicts that the US economy will go back close to potential growth by next year, I see instead a shallow, below-par and below-trend recovery where growth will average about 1% in the next couple of years when potential is probably closer to 2.75%.

“I have also consistently argued that there is a risk of a double-dip W-shaped recession toward the end of 2010, as a tough policy dilemma will emerge next year: on one side, early exit from monetary and fiscal easing would tip the economy into a new recession as the recovery is anemic and deflationary pressures are dominant. On the other side, maintaining large budget deficits and continued monetization of such deficits would eventually increase long term interest rates (because of concerns about medium term fiscal sustainability and because of an increase in expected inflation) and thus would lead to a crowding out of private demand.

“While the recession will be over by the end of the year the recovery will be weak given the debt overhang in the household sector, the financial system and the corporate sector; and now there is also a massive re-leveraging of the public sector with unsustainable fiscal deficits and public debt accumulation.

“Also, as I fleshed out in detail in recent remarks the labor market is still very weak: I predict a peak unemployment rate of close to 11% in 2010. Such large unemployment rate will have negative effects on labor income and consumption growth; will postpone the bottoming out of the housing sector; will lead to larger defaults and losses on bank loans (residential and commercial mortgages, credit cards, auto loans, leveraged loans); will increase the size of the budget deficit (even before any additional stimulus is implemented); and will increase protectionist pressures.

“So, yes there is light at the end of the tunnel for the US and the global economy; but as I have consistently argued the recession will continue through the end of the year, and the recovery will be weak and at risk of a double dip, as the challenge of getting right the timing and size of the exit strategy for monetary and fiscal policy easing will be daunting.

“RGE Monitor will soon release our updated U.S. and Global Economic Outlook. A preview of the U.S. Outlook is available on our website: www.rgemonitor.com”

Bob DeMarco is a citizen journalist and twenty year Wall Street veteran. Bob has written more than 700 articles with more than 18,000 links to his work on the Internet. Content from All American Investor has been syndicated on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Pluck, Blog Critics, and a growing list of newspaper websites. Bob is actively seeking syndication and writing assignments.

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Roubini on Gold, China, IMF Sales

Gold is a special commodity in that the fundamentals of physical supply and demand are minor influences on its price. Gold’s price is most often driven by speculative demand for a hedge against inflation or economic uncertainty. Many investors see gold as a substitute for fiat currencies. Consequently, gold prices sometimes track changes in central bank holdings of gold.

Gold markets largely ignored China’s surprise revelation that it had increased its gold reserves as much of this had already been priced in by speculators. Moreover, China produces its own gold. The increase in China's gold holdings is just a mere drop in the bucket of its total $1.9 trillion in foreign exchange reserves. Gold's share in China's foreign exchange reserves remains much lower than the global average and well below the U.S. share. But China's interest in gold is consistent with its taste for real assets to gradually diversify from its U.S. bond-heavy portfolio. If other central banks followed suit, gold demand could increase sharply.

IMF gold sales will likely have little impact on gold prices if it sells its gold to central banks rather than the free market. The European Central Bank Gold Agreement’s expiration in September 2009 may have more impact. The signatories are likely to renew the agreement and continue limiting central bank gold sales. Fears that monetization of rising public debts will erode currency values may spark demand for gold as an inflation hedge.

Source RGE Monitor Newsletter and RGE Monitor

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Bob DeMarco is a citizen journalist and twenty year Wall Street veteran. Bob has written more than 500 articles with more than 11,000 links to his work on the Internet. Content from All American Investor has been syndicated on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Pluck, Blog Critics, and a growing list of newspaper websites. Bob is actively seeking syndication and writing assignments.

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Roubini on the U.S. Dollar and the Chinese Yuan

The Almighty Renminbi?

Now, imagine a world in which China could borrow and lend internationally in its own currency. The renminbi, rather than the dollar, could eventually become a means of payment in trade and a unit of account in pricing imports and exports, as well as a store of value for wealth by international investors. Americans would pay the price. We would have to shell out more for imported goods, and interest rates on both private and public debt would rise. The higher private cost of borrowing could lead to weaker consumption and investment, and slower growth.

Also see Roubini vs. Zhou on the U.S. Dollar and the Chinese Yuan

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Bob DeMarco is a citizen journalist and twenty year Wall Street veteran. Bob has written more than 500 articles with more than 11,000 links to his work on the Internet. Content from All American Investor has been syndicated on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Pluck, Blog Critics, and a growing list of newspaper websites. Bob is actively seeking syndication and writing assignments.

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Roubini on the current state of the economy

The thinkers who predicted early on many aspects of this financial crisis

Nouriel Roubini references several economist in this article.

I certainly recognize that there were a small but significant number of economists, thinkers and analysts who – early on – predicted many of the risks and vulnerabilities that eventually led to this crisis. In many ways I simply connected the dot in these different strands of thinking and warnings.

He also discusses the current state of economic affairs.

We are still in a severe and deep and protracted U-shaped recession that – unlike the forecast of the current consensus economists – will not be over in Q3 but will last until the beginning of 2010. So there may be finally light at the end of the tunnel but later rather than sooner, in 2010 rather than in the second half of 2009. There are still significant downside risks and while optimists speak about green shoots there are still plenty of yellow weeds; and while second derivatives are becoming positive especially in the US but, partially, also in other countries, they are not positive enough yet to suggest that the recession will bottom out in Q3 – as predicted by the consensus – as opposed to some time in 2010. The toxic mess and damage caused by this leverage-driven financial crisis and economic recession – including a brutal shedding of employment that shows no sign of letting up – will take much longer to truly heal the financial markets, the financial institutions and the real economy.

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Roubini: Economist Forecast on Economy Optimistic

Mild signs that the rate of economic contraction is slowing in the United States, China and other parts of the world have led many economists to forecast that positive growth will return to the US in the second half of the year, and that a similar recovery will occur in other advanced economies.

The emerging consensus among economists is that growth next year will be close to the trend rate of 2.5 per cent.

This consensus optimism is, I believe, not supported by the facts. Indeed, I expect that while the rate of US contraction will slow from -6 per cent in the last two quarters, US growth will still be negative (around -1.5 to -2 per cent) in the second half of the year (compared to the bullish consensus of +2 per cent).

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End of Economic Gloom? Not as Early as You Wish. Roubini’s latest Article for Project Syndicate

End of economic gloom? Nouriel Roubini

Mild signs that the rate of economic contraction is slowing in the United States, China and other parts of the world have led many economists to forecast that positive growth will return to the US in the second half of the year, and that a similar recovery will occur in other advanced economies.

The emerging consensus among economists is that growth next year will be close to the trend rate of 2.5 per cent.

Investors are talking of 'green shoots' of recovery and of positive 'second derivatives of economic activity' (continuing economic contraction is the first, negative, derivative, but the slower rate suggests that the bottom is near).

As a result, stock markets have started to rally in the US and around the world. Markets seem to believe that there is light at the end of the tunnel for the economy and for the battered profits of corporations and financial firms.

This consensus optimism is, I believe, not supported by the facts. Indeed, I expect that while the rate of US contraction will slow from -6 per cent in the last two quarters, US growth will still be negative (around -1.5 to -2 per cent) in the second half of the year (compared to the bullish consensus of +2 per cent).

Moreover, growth next year will be so weak (0.5 to 1 per cent, as opposed to the consensus of 2 per cent or more) and unemployment so high (above 10 per cent) that it will still feel like a recession.

In the euro zone and Japan, the outlook for 2009 and 2010 is even worse, with growth close to zero even next year. China will have a more rapid recovery later this year, but growth will reach only 5 per cent this year and 7 per cent in 2010, well below the average of 10 per cent over the last decade.

Given this weak outlook for the major economies, losses by banks and other financial institutions will continue to grow. My latest estimates are $3.6 trillion in losses for loans and securities issued by US institutions, and $1 trillion for the rest of the world.

It is said that the International Monetary Fund, which earlier this year revised upward its estimate of bank losses, from $1 trillion to $2.2 trillion, will announce a new estimate of $3.1 trillion for US assets and $0.9 trillion for foreign assets, figures very close to my own.

By this standard, many US and foreign banks are effectively insolvent and will have to be taken over by governments. The credit crunch will last much longer if we keep zombie banks alive despite their massive and continuing losses.

Given this outlook for the real economy and financial institutions, the latest rally in US and global stock markets has to be interpreted as a bear-market rally. Economists usually joke that the stock market has predicted 12 out of the last nine recessions, as markets often fall sharply without an ensuing recession.

But, in the last two years, the stock market has predicted six out of the last zero economic recoveries -- that is, six bear market rallies that eventually fizzled and led to new lows.

The stock market's latest 'dead cat bounce' may last a while longer, but three factors will, in due course, lead it to turn south again. First, macroeconomic indicators will be worse than expected, with growth failing to recover as fast as the consensus expects.

Second, the profits and earnings of corporations and financial institutions will not rebound as fast as the consensus predicts, as weak economic growth, deflationary pressures and surging defaults on corporate bonds will limit firms' pricing power and keep profit margins low.

Third, financial shocks will be worse than expected.

At some point, investors will realise that bank losses are massive, and that some banks are insolvent. Deleveraging by highly leveraged firms -- such as hedge funds -- will lead them to sell illiquid assets in illiquid markets. And some emerging market economies -- despite massive IMF support -- will experience a severe financial crisis with contagious effects on other economies.

So, while this latest bear-market rally may continue for a bit longer, renewed downward pressure on stocks and other risky assets is inevitable.

To be sure, much more aggressive policy action (massive and unconventional monetary easing, larger fiscal-stimulus packages, bailouts of financial firms, individual mortgage-debt relief, and increased financial support for troubled emerging markets) in many countries in the last few months has reduced the risk of a near depression. That outcome seemed highly likely six months ago, when global financial markets nearly collapsed.

Still, this global recession will continue for a longer period than the consensus suggests. There may be light at the end of the tunnel -- no depression and financial meltdown. But economic recovery everywhere will be weaker and will take longer than expected. The same is true for a sustained recovery of financial markets.

Nouriel Roubini is professor of economics at the Stern School of Business, New York University, and chairman of RGE Monitor. Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2009.

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Go Check it Out.

Bob DeMarco is a citizen journalist and twenty year Wall Street veteran. Bob has written more than 500 articles with more than 11,000 links to his work on the Internet. Content from All American Investor has been syndicated on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Pluck, Blog Critics, and a growing list of newspaper websites. Bob is actively seeking syndication and writing assignments.

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Roubini: Stress Test Results are Meaningless

The word on the street is that all 19 banks subject to stress testing will pass. Nouriel Roubini has a long article on the assumptions underneath the testing and why they are bogus or no longer meaningful.

The purpose of the stress testing, as I see it, is to create confidence in banks. As a result, the perception in the market place is going to be critical for the direction of the stock market. Will the stress tests create confidence or more uncertainty?

Uncertainty is not good for stocks, and would likely send us back for a retest of the lows.

Roubini has a lot of detail in this report and it is worth reading, digesting, and considering. If he is right, sooner or later it is going to be very ugly in the stock market.

The stock market has good technical resilance right now and I have been writing about this often. However, the bull run from the bottom is getting a little long in the touch and the risk/reward ratio is starting to turn negative.

Stress Testing the Stress Test Scenarios

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IMF Sets Toxic Debt at $ 4 Trillion

Toxic debts racked up by banks and insurers could spiral to $4 trillion. This is a new forecasts coming from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Previously, the IMF forecast U.S. toxic assets at $2.2 Trillion by the end of next year. The new assessment for the U.S. is likely to be set at $3.1 Trillion.

Nouriel Roubini set the target as $3.6 Trillion six months ago.

The term toxic asset now refers to all bad loans.

Stay tuned.

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Is the new Toxic Asset Plan a Mirage?

More and more, it appears the new toxic asset plan is a mirage--it is being done with smoke and mirrors.

Current talk is that the Treasury is going to buy $1 trillion in troubled mortgages and related assets from financial institutions. It should be noted that this means we, the taxpayers, are going to be buying these toxic assets.

The plan is being designed to rescue the nation’s banking system by taking the toxic assets off their balance sheets. Does that sound familiar?

Nouriel Roubini has been writing about this for some time, and if he is right the numbers are staggering. More than the $2 trillion that is currently being forecast.

It appears the plan has three parts:

• The FDIC will set up investment partnerships and lend 85 percent of the money needed to buy up troubled assets that banks want to sell. This will be accomplished with low interest, non-recourse loans, and lots of taxpayer money. It remains to be seen how purchased assets will be priced. Incidentally, this is how the Resolution Trust Corporation ( RTC) unloaded much of the real estate from the savings and loan crisis--non recourse loans.
  
• The Treasury will hire four or five investment management firms, matching the private money that each of the firms puts up on a dollar-for-dollar basis with government money. If this turns out to be part of the package then one can assume they have the managers lined up.
  
• The Treasury plans to expand lending through the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility. The plan is to buy up as many toxic assets as possible so that banks can get back to lending. The available monies to the Treasury will be running out of money soon so the key word here is--leverage. We never learn.
  

This is not very different from what was proposed last September. It has more buzz words and wrinkles but one thing remains the same--lots of taxpayer money; and hope that this strategy will help avoid the inevitable nationalization of banks.

There is one big wild card. Will the banks be willing to sell the mortgages at prices substantially below the prices they paid for these securities. Stay tuned--I doubt it.

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Roubini on the Dead Cat Bounce in the Market

It is déjà vu all over again. We have already seen this Groundhog Day movie at least six times over and over again in the last year or so: the market starts to rally – this time around about 8% in a week - and the chorus of optimists starts to say that this is the bottom of the economic and financial crisis and that we are at the beginning of a sustained stock market rally that signals the true end of this bear market.

Even before the latest bear market rally started last week I wrote the following on March 2nd:

Of course you cannot rule out another bear market sucker’s rally in 2009, most likely in Q2 or Q3: the drivers of this rally will be the improvement in second derivatives of economic growth and activity in US and China that the policy stimulus will provide on a temporary basis: but after the effects of tax cut will fizzle out in late summer and after the shovel-ready infrastructure projects are done the policy stimulus will slack by Q4 as most infrastructure projects take year to be started let alone finished; similarly in China the fiscal stimulus will provide a fake boost to non-tradeable productive activities while the traded sector and manufacturing continues to contract. But given the severity of macro, household, financial firms and corporate imbalances in the US and around the world this Q2 or Q3 sucker’s market rally will fizzle out later in the year like the previous 5 ones in the last 12 months.

Read Nouriel Roubini's full comment--

Reflections on the latest dead cat bounce or bear market sucker’s rally

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Bold Endeavors: How Our Government Built America, and Why It Must Rebuild Now

Roubini on Interest Rates, Global Fiscal Policy, and Housing (Part Three)

Roubini on interest rates, global fiscal policy, and housing.

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Roubini Video on Insolvent, Zombie Banks

Nouriel Roubini,(aka Dr. Doom), proclaims that unless drastic action is taken soon, the world as we know it is about to come crashing down (Part One).

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Doctor Doom Nouriel Roubini: Stock Market to Go Much Lower

http://allamericaninvestor.blogspot.com/2009/03/doctor-doom-nouriel-roubini-stock.htmlThis is directly from an email I received from the RGE Monitor.

Roubini of RGE Monitor: Stock Market to Go Much Lower

Can we rule out another bear market rally some time in 2009?

No, we cannot rule out another bear market sucker’s rally in 2009, most likely in Q2 or Q3. The drivers of this rally will be the improvement in second derivatives of economic growth and activity in U.S. and China that the policy stimulus will provide on a temporary basis. Given the severity of macro, household, financial firms and corporate imbalances in the U.S. and around the world this Q2 or Q3 sucker’s market rally will fizzle out later in the year like the previous 5 ones in the last 12 months.

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What are the downside risks to these bearish predictions for U.S. and global equities?

On the downside there is at least a third probability of an L-shaped global near depression rather than the mere current severe U-shaped recession. If a near depression were to take hold globally a 40% to 50% further fall in U.S. and global equities from current levels could not be ruled out. But in this L-shaped near depression the last thing one would have to worry about would be stock markets as more severe issues would have to be addressed.

What are the upside risks to these bearish predictions for U.S. and global equities?

On the upside, we have an aggressive policy stimulus in the U.S. and other countries that might lead to a faster sustained economic and financial markets recovery that expected here. The bullish argument for a non-bear market and early persistent recovery of global equities is based on a better than expected recovery of the U.S. and global economy.

Bottom Line: P/E and S&P Index

Earnings per share (EPS) of S&P 500 firms will be in the $ 50 to 60 range, but they could fall to $40. The price earnings (P/E) ratio may fall in the 10 to 12 range in a U-shaped recession. If earnings are closer to 50 or the P/E ratio falls to 10 then the S&P could fall to 600 (12 x 50 or 10 x 60) or even to 500 (10 x 50). Equivalently the Dow (DJIA) would be at least as low as 7000 and possibly as low as 6000 or 5000.

Nouriel expounded the above topics further at the CBOE 25th Annual Risk Management Conference at Laguna Beach where he was the keynote speaker.

Read more of Nouriel’s and other RGE Monitor analysts’ views on the current economic and financial situation on www.rgemonitor.com or contact sales at info@rgemonitor.com.

Bob DeMarco is a citizen journalist, blogger, and Caregiver. Bob has written more than 500 articles with more than 11,000 links to his work on the Internet. The content has been syndicated on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Pluck, Blog Critics, and a growing list of newspaper websites. Bob is actively seeking syndication and writing assignments.

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• Six Errors on the Path to the Financial Crisis


• Who Caused the Financial Crisis?


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• Debt Binge--The Perfect Financial Storm


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The Case For and Against Bank Nationalization

These paragraphs were extracted from Nouriel Roubini's GlobalEconoMonitor. The article contains a discussion of insolvency and the Pros and Cons of nationalization. Must reading for the well informed.

As an example, consider the poster child for the “freebie” programs, the Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program, started in late November of 2008. For a cost of 0.75%, it allows banks to issue bonds backed by the government, i.e., essentially risk free. The banks have accessed this market 97 times for $190 billion!

The biggest pig at the trough - Bank of America 11 times for $35.5 billion. But close behind, JP Morgan at $30 billion, GE Capital $27 billion, Citigroup $24 billion, Morgan Stanley $19 billion, Goldman Sachs $19 billion and Wells Fargo $6 billion. A not so surprising correlation with their respective writedowns (including merged entities), Bank of America $96 billion, JP Morgan $75 billion, Citigroup $88 billion, Morgan Stanley $22 billion, Goldman Sachs $7 billion and Wells Fargo $115 billion.

In terms of helping us move forward out of the financial crisis, this program has many problems. It charges the same amount for each institution, so it hardly separates the solvent from the insolvent institutions. It charges a fee which is grossly below what these institutions could issue in the marketplace given their current balance sheets, distorting the system. Wasn’t this the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac problem? And it makes it less likely to cleanse the system of the toxic assets because these institutions can continue their way out-of-the-money option and hope that the prices of the toxic assets increase. In effect, the access to this capital allows them to continue to make the original bet.

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Bob DeMarco is a citizen journalist, blogger, and Caregiver. In addition to being an experienced writer he taught at the University of Georgia , managed on Wall Street at Bear Stearns, was CEO of IP Group, and is a mentor. Bob currently resides in Delray Beach, FL where he cares for his mother, Dorothy, who suffers from Alzheimer's disease. Bob has written more than 500 articles with more than 11,000 links to his work on the Internet. His content has been syndicated on Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Pluck, BlogCritics, and a growing list of newspaper websites (15). Bob is actively seeking writing assignments and syndication.

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NOURIEL ROUBINI: The "N" Word

This interview and article is one of the best so far on Nouriel Roubini.

"Between guarantees, liquidity support, and capitalization, the government has provided between $7 trillion to $9 trillion of help to the financial system. De facto, the government is already controlling a good chunk of the banking system. The question is: Do you want to move to the de jure step."

There's another reason why the concept should appeal to (fiscal) conservatives, he explains. "The idea that government will fork out trillions of dollars to try to rescue financial institutions, and throw more money after bad dollars, is not appealing because then the fiscal cost is much larger. So rather than being seen as something Bolshevik, nationalization is seen as pragmatic. Paradoxically, the proposal is more market-friendly than the alternative of zombie banks."

'Nationalize' the Banks'

Charlie Rose: Nouriel Roubini, Mark Zandi, Nina Easton and Fred Mishkin

Charlie Rose interviews Professor Nouriel Roubini, Mark Zandi, Nina Easton, and Fred Mishkin. This is an excellent interview that contains a detailed analysis of the Help for Homeowners Plan. This is informative, educational and worthwhile listening.